THE DRAGON’S SHADOW:THE RISE OF CHINA AND JAPAN’S NEW NATIONALISM

February 4, 2010

Japan’s Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko visited China in October 1992 to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations. It was the first time ever that a Japanese head of state had been to China. The visit was successful not only in advancing the international rehabilitation of Beijing following the Tiananmen massacre, but also as the culmination of Japan’s long-term strategy that aimed at co-opting China and opening it up to Japanese trade and investment. This strategy derived in large part from the Japan’s desire to overcome the ill-will created by its often brutal military occupation of China that began with the invasion of Manchuria in 1931 and lasted until the end of World War II.

Read more : http://www.stimson.org/southeastasia/pdf/TheDragonsShadow-Version-052107.pdf

China, Japan tug-of-war over Indochina

February 4, 2010

By Hisane Masaki Asia Times Oct 5, 2005

TOKYO – Moves between Japan and China over the development of the Mekong River basin show signs of intensifying as Tokyo is trying to regain some ground lost in recent years to Beijing in the economic backwater of East Asia.

Japan inaugurated a regular economic ministerial meeting with four countries in the Mekong region – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, or CLMV countries as they are often called collectively – in the Laos capital Vientiane at the end of last month.

It is the first such high-level dialogue forum between Japan and the CLMV countries, although various channels of dialogue for cooperation already exist between Japan and the whole of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – that includes the CLMV countries – including annual gatherings of top leaders and economic ministers.

The four countries on the Indochina peninsula are the least developed among the ASEAN members. Vietnam joined ASEAN in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997 and Cambodia in 1999.

At the inaugural ministerial meeting, Japan and the CLMV nations agreed on a package of new Japanese assistance programs for the development of the Mekong region, which include cooperation in building a production and distribution network across the region and facilitating intra-regional trade through the use of IC tags (a digital medium that uses radio frequency identification).

Japan will also assist in capacity-building for economic planning and fostering human resources for the management of electric power networks. The Japanese government will also hold an exhibition and a seminar in Tokyo in February next year to promote imports from and Japanese investment in the Mekong region. The next meeting will be held in the autumn of next year in Kuala Lumpur.

The Mekong region has huge potential for economic growth. In the late 1980s, then Thai prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan advocated turning Indochina “from a battlefield into a market”. Now that Cold War conflicts are a thing of the past and the CLMV countries are accelerating free-market reforms launched in the late 1980s, Chatichai”s slogan is no longer a mere pipe dream, it is a reality, although it will still take some years for private-sector investment in the Mekong region to become a flood, not just a trickle.

To be sure, Japan’s inauguration of a regular economic ministerial meeting with the CLMV countries reflects a growing interest among Japanese businesses in the region as a promising investment destination. But the Japanese move is also widely seen as a thinly veiled attempt to counter the rapidly growing political as well as economic influence of China in the region.

Japan is still the world’s number two economy, after the United States. But its economic power – and its international clout – have declined relatively amid a prolonged slump. Official development assistance, or ODA, is Japan’s most effective foreign-policy tool because its contributions to the international community through military means is still strictly constrained by the post-World War II pacifist constitution. But Japan was replaced by the US in 2001 as the world’s biggest aid donor, the position it had held for a decade, due to continued cuts in aid budget amid tight fiscal conditions.

Meanwhile, China is rapidly ascending as a new economic as well as political and military power regionally and globally. The world’s most populous nation of some 1.3 billion people is already the world’s seventh largest economy in terms of gross domestic product, or GDP, and also the third-biggest trading nation after Germany and the US. China’s booming economy attracted foreign direct investment worth more than $60 billion in 2004, making it the world’s biggest recipient of such investment. China’s sharply swelling exports also brought huge foreign reserves into its coffers – now more than $700 billion, the second-largest amount after Japan’s nearly $850 billion.

Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura visited Brunei, Vietnam and Cambodia in June to seek support for Japan’s bid for a much-coveted permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

The tour of the three ASEAN nations came shortly before the Group of Four (G-4) countries – Japan, Germany, India and Brazil – submitted to the UN Secretariat a resolution to expand the Security Council, thus paving the way for Japan and a few other countries to obtain permanent council membership. Many countries, led by the US and China, which are permanent council members along with Russia, Britain and France, vehemently objected to the council expansion proposed by the G-4. China launched a fierce diplomatic campaign of rallying opposition to the G-4 resolution, especially among Asian and African countries.

In their meeting with Machimura, leaders of Vietnam and Cambodia as well as Brunei expressed support for Japan’s bid for permanent membership, but stopped short of agreeing to cosponsor the G-4 resolution. After realizing that they did not have enough support for their resolution among the some 190 UN members, the G-4 countries approached the 53-nation African Union (AU), which had a council expansion resolution of its own, in hopes of hashing out a unified resolution to expand the Security Council, to no avail. Both the G-4 and AU resolutions were quashed without being put to a vote during the last UN General Assembly session that ended in mid-September, dealing a devastating setback to Japan’s bid.

A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official said of Machimura’s talks with leaders of Vietnam and Cambodia as well as Brunei, “Consideration to China made their support for Japan’s bid betwixt and between.” The official, who accompanied the foreign minister on his ASEAN tour, reportedly went on to say,” We felt at every turn how big China’s presence is.”

In the early 1990s, after years of civil war ended in Cambodia, Japan took the leadership role in efforts to develop the Mekong region, backed by its huge aid money, and secured a strong influence in the region. With the turn of the millennium, however, China began to turn the tables on Japan, while Japan rested on its laurels.

China woke up to the strategic as well as economic importance of joining the regional development, and Japanese policymakers have lost some sleep. While the Japanese economy is going downstream, the Chinese one is going upstream. Although Japan has begun to move to regain some influence lost to China in the Mekong region, it may be too late to reverse the political and economic currents there.

Japan’s gambit after the Cold War
In 1977, then Japanese prime minister Takeo Fukuda delivered a policy speech in Manila spelling out what became widely known later as the “Fukuda Doctrine”. Fukuda declared, among other things, that Japan would never become a military power again, strengthen relations with ASEAN based on “equal partnership” and “heart-to-heart understanding”, and also play the role of intermediary between the then five-member ASEAN and communist regimes on the Indochina peninsula. ASEAN was established in 1967 with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand as its original members. Brunei joined in 1984.

Fukuda’s foreign-policy initiative toward Southeast Asia came after the end of the Vietnam War and also amid the detente in the Cold War superpowers – the US and the Soviet Union. But Japan’s bid to play the role of bridge-builder between ASEAN and communist regimes on the Indochina peninsula was thwarted soon afterwards by reignited regional and global tensions. Vietnamese troops invaded Cambodia, and the US-Soviet detente collapsed due to the Soviet troops’ invasion of Afghanistan.

About 1990, a year after then US president George Bush senior and Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev declared the end of the Cold War at their Malta summit, Japan began to play an active diplomatic role in the Indochina peninsula again. Japan hosted an international peace conference for Cambodia in June 1990. It was the first time since the end of World War II that Japan had hosted an international conference to discuss peace in a third country. The warring factions in Cambodia signed a peace agreement in Paris in October the following year, ending years of conflict.

In 1992, Japan enacted a historic law enabling its Self-Defense Forces to participate in UN-sponsored peacekeeping operations abroad. Under the law, SDF troops were dispatched to join UN peacekeeping efforts in Cambodia prior to the country’s first postwar election in the spring of 1993. It marked the first overseas mission for SDF troops. Sending troops abroad had previously been a taboo in Japan because of the country’s war-renouncing, post-World War II constitution. Japan also showed the strongest enthusiasm about assisting the development of the Mekong region.

The 4,425-kilometer Mekong River, the world’s 12th longest, originates in Tibet and flows through China’s Yunnan province, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and into the South China Sea. It is the main artery for Indochina.

The Mekong River basin, abundant in natural and human resources, has attracted much attention as an untapped frontier for development since the early 1990s, following an end to the civil war in Cambodia and other Cold War hostilities on the Indochinese peninsula. The river’s development has been widely believed to hold the key to the development of the war-battered Indochina as a whole.

Reflecting the new focus on the Mekong River basin, various international forums were created in the 1990s to promote the region’s development. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), to which Japan is the biggest financial contributor, has sponsored the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Cooperation program – the most high-profile and powerful vehicle for promoting development projects in the Mekong River basin – since 1992. The GMS program includes as members Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand and China, along with international organizations and donor nations as observers.

The long-dormant Mekong River Committee, another international forum for Indochina development organized in 1957, was reborn as the Mekong River Commission in 1995. Its members are Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand. International organizations and aid donor nations are cooperating with the commission.

Japan also jumped on the bandwagon. When he visited Bangkok in January 1993 on a Southeast Asian tour, then Japanese prime minister Kiichi Miyazawa proposed the creation of the “Forum for Comprehensive Development of Indochina”. The forum held its first ministerial-level meeting in Tokyo in February 1995, with 25 nations and eight international organizations attending.

Japan, by far the largest aid donor for all CLMV countries, has funded infrastructure projects transcending national borders on the Indochina peninsula on its own or in partnership with the ADB.

The most high-profile among those transnational projects is the “East-West Corridor” project to build a major highway, including a bridge over the Mekong River, to link Mukdahan in northeastern Thailand, Savannakhet in southern Laos and the port of Da Nang in central Vietnam. The highway, scheduled for completion next year, is to be extended to Mawlamyine in southern Myanmar down the road. The “Second East-West Corridor” project is also under way to build another highway linking Bangkok, Phnom Penh and Ho Chi Minh City. This project is also scheduled for completion next year.

China turns the tables on Japan
In December 1995, ASEAN took the initiative of its own for the development of the Mekong region. Top leaders of the then seven ASEAN members – Vietnam joined earlier that year – agreed to launch the Ministerial Meeting on ASEAN-Mekong Basin Development Cooperation to discuss assistance for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The first ministerial meeting was held the following year.
During the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis, which originated in Thailand – the most staunch proponent and major beneficiary of the Mekong subregion’s development – and spread to much of the rest of East Asia, however, ASEAN members were preoccupied by domestic economic woes, pushing the Mekong subregion’s development to the back burner temporarily.

As Asian countries recovered from the 1997-1998 economic crisis, Mekong development began to gradually come back into the spotlight about 2000. In November that year, the ASEAN leaders adopted the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI), which is primarily aimed at shoring up the economic growth of the CLMV countries. Also, the Japanese and ASEAN leaders agreed to step up cooperation in the greater Mekong subregion as a means of narrowing the wide disparity in the level of development between the haves and have-nots within ASEAN.

Unlike Vietnam, which has a relatively large economy, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar have been heavily reliant on Thailand for economic growth. But Thailand’s influence on the Indochina peninsula has been eroded since the 1997-1998 economic crisis, and China has filled the gap.

In late 2000, China adopted its 10th Five-year Plan starting in 2001. The basic national economic development plan features, among other things, the “Go West” strategy aimed at turning the poorer western part of the vast country into a magnet for domestic and foreign investors and thereby correcting the widening gap in wealth with the flourishing eastern coastal areas, an issue that could threaten the country’s political stability and even the rule of the Communist Party. Under that strategy, the Mekong region’s development became a top-priority project.

In November 2002, the six member nations of the ADB-sponsored GMS Economic Cooperation program held their first summit in Phnom Penh. Then Chinese premier Zhu Rongji unveiled a package of financial and other assistance programs for the development of the GMS.

In a surprise announcement, Zhu also told Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that China would forgive an estimated more than $1 billion in debts owed by Phnom Penh to Beijing. The Chinese decision was apparently aimed at improving bilateral ties, which had been uneasy because China supported the notorious Khmer Rouge regime, which is blamed for the deaths of about 1.7 million Cambodians due to disease, overwork, starvation and execution during its 1975-1979 rule.

In early July this year, the second GMS summit was held in Kunming, capital of China’s Yunnan province. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced that China would individually expand the range of products eligible for preferential tariffs from Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar as of January 1 next year.

Since 2002, China has cut or exempted tariffs for 600 products from the three underdeveloped ASEAN nations. China also signed a number of documents with the other five GMS countries to enhance cooperation in such areas as transportation, animal epidemics prevention, information superhighway construction, power trade, tourism and environmental protection.

Geography is on China’s side, not on Japan’s. Wen himself said in a keynote speech at the GMS summit that all GMS countries are close neighbors of China and that the peoples in the region, nourished by the same river, have fostered long-standing friendship. “A close neighbor is more helpful than a distant relative,” the Chinese leader said.

“I firmly believe that China’s development not only benefits its more than one billion people, but also presents development opportunities to other countries, its neighbors in particular, thus contributing to prosperity and stability of the region and the world at large,” Wen said, adding,”May our friendship and cooperation run as long and deep as the Lancang-Mekong River.”

Flexing its economic muscles, China has funded the “North-South Corridor” project to build a highway linking Kunming and Bangkok via Laos. The highway is scheduled to be completely opened to traffic in 2007. Japan balked at funding the project, partly for fear of lending China a hand to increase its influence southward on the Indochina peninsula. China also set up a special fund totaling $20 million within the ADB for poverty alleviation of the region last year.

Aside from the Mekong development, China has strengthened political and military as well as economic relations with Myanmar in defiance of US and European sanctions against the military-ruled country. China wants to secure stable oil and other energy supplies by land, as well as by sea, many experts agree. Speculation is rife about the idea of building an oil pipeline running across Myanmar to Kunming at an estimated cost of $2 billion.

China became a net importer of crude oil in 1993. It has continued to sharply increase oil imports to fuel a booming economy. It is now the world’s second-largest oil consumer, after the US. China already depends on imports for as much as 40% of its oil needs, nearly half of which come from the Middle East. About 80% of oil imported into China is shipped through the Malacca Strait, a waterway notorious for rampant piracies. There are also growing concerns after September 11 that tankers and other ships sailing through the waterway might be become a target for terrorism.

Leadership battle over East Asian community
For ASEAN, correcting the so-called “ASEAN divide” – the huge gap in wealth between rich and poor members – is a high priority as the grouping accelerates its economic integration with an ultimate goal of creating a fully integrated “ASEAN Economic Community” by 2020. Per-capita income of Myanmar, for example, is less than one-hundredth of that of Singapore. For countries outside ASEAN, like Japan and China, assistance in the development of the poorer ASEAN nations is becoming a very important avenue to strengthened ties with the entire ASEAN.

Amid growing talk of creating an East Asian Community (EAC) in recent years, Japan and China have been jockeying for the leadership role in what will be the long and arduous process of community building. And the two Asian powers have competed for stronger and closer ties with ASEAN. Although the 10 ASEAN members are much smaller than Japan and China in economic size individually, they wield a strong voice in East Asian affairs as a group on the strength of their number.

For Japan, further fortifying ties with the ASEAN has become important all the more because of its frosty ties with China and South Korea. Japan’s relations with the two other Asian economic powers have plunged to their lowest points in decades in recent years because of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s repeated visits to the war-related Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, a dispute over Japanese school textbooks authored by right-wing scholars and territorial disputes, among other things.

China has aggressively cozied up to the individual ASEAN members and ASEAN as a whole in recent years. A greater commitment to the development of the Mekong region is part of such efforts.

China had a head start over Japan in strengthening ties with ASEAN. On the economic front, China and ASEAN signed the Framework Agreement for Overall Economic Cooperation in November 2002, kicking off the process of creating the world’s biggest free trade zone with more than 1.8 billion people. Under that agreement, China and the non-CLMV ASEAN members will start zero tariffs on most normal products by 2010. China and the CLMV countries will do the same by 2015.

A year after the China-ASEAN framework agreement, Japan and ASEAN signed the similar Framework for Comprehensive Economic Partnership in October 2003, starting the process of creating a free trade zone by 2012. Japan has already concluded a free trade agreement, or FTA, with Singapore and reached basic FTA agreements separately with the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand. Japan’s FTA negotiations with Indonesia and the whole of ASEAN got under way earlier this year.

Two-way trade between China and ASEAN has been growing at a much faster pace than that between Japan and ASEAN in recent years. China-ASEAN trade topped $100 billion in 2004, and soared 25% in the first half of this year from a year earlier to nearly $60 billion amid ongoing reductions in tariffs, compared with the about $74 billion trade conducted between Japan and ASEAN during the same period.

ASEAN is now China’s fourth-largest trading partner after the 25-nation European Union, the US and Japan. China has already superseded the US as the biggest trading partner of Japan and South Korea. For ASEAN, the US and Japan are still the two biggest trading partners. But many experts say that it is just a matter of time before China will replace the US and Japan as ASEAN’s biggest trading partner. China’s investment in ASEAN is also surging sharply. In 2004, ASEAN-bound Chinese foreign direct investment totaled $226 million, although the amount is still dwarfed by Japan’s such investment worth nearly $3 billion.

China took a lead over Japan on the political front as well. In October 2003, China signed ASEAN’s 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, a few months before Japan did. Japan initially balked at signing the ASEAN treaty, which provides for, among other things, peaceful settlement of conflicts and non-interference in internal affairs, out of political consideration to its most important ally, the US.

A cacophony of alarm bells from the US can be heard these days about the embryonic EAC, which some American experts see as a development that would lead to the formation of a regional trade bloc that not only excludes the US but also could reduce and even challenge the currently unrivaled US influence in the region under the domination of China.

There are some critics of the proposed community in Japan as well, many of them nationalists. They share fears that such a regional community could fall under the sway of China. The participation of India, Australia and New Zealand in the first East Asian Summit may ease concerns in Japan and the US about a possible Chinese domination of the proposed community.

Meanwhile, China is increasingly alarmed by the ongoing global “transformation” of the US military. The Bush administration insists that the transformation is aimed at ensuring stability in the “arc of instability”, an area stretching from the Middle East to Northeast Asia via South Asia and Southeast Asia. There are deep suspicions in China, however, that the real motive for the transformation might be what some people call the “soft containment” of China.

In 2001, China signed a “Declaration of Conduct” with ASEAN to prevent conflicts in the South China Sea, where China, four of the ASEAN members – Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – and Taiwan claim all or part of the Spratly Islands. In March this year, China agreed with Vietnam and the Philippines to explore for oil in the disputed waters in the South China Sea.

These aggressive Chinese peace overtures toward ASEAN apparently reflect a desire to assuage the perception of China among some in ASEAN as the most serious security threat to their countries and thereby to forge closer ties with the grouping. Cementing ties with ASEAN in general – and the joint oil-exploration agreement with Vietnam and the Philippines in particular – is also seen by some as part of efforts to preempt a possible US-led containment of China.

The proposed EAC will get a political boost when the first East Asia Summit is held in Malaysia in December. Leaders of the so-called ASEAN plus Three, India, Australia and New Zealand, will attend. ASEAN plus Three is made up of the 10 ASEAN members plus Japan, China and South Korea.

It remains uncertain, however, how far the region will go in integrating itself – and how fast. East Asia is immensely diverse in political systems, cultures and religions. Countries in the region are also at various levels of development. What is East Asia? Who are East Asians? What do “East Asians” have in common? What common values, if any, do they share? All these basic questions remain unanswered. Will the regional community come into fruition with relative smoothness and eventually become the Asian version of the European Union with common foreign and security policies and a single currency in the long-distance future? This is anybody’s guess.

At this moment, however, the proposed EAC appears very likely to develop in several stages, with the first significant stage coming with the formation of a region-wide FTA in the years ahead. Although there is no specific agreement yet on forming a region-wide FTA, a web of bilateral FTAs is now in the pipeline.

Whatever the final shape of the proposed EAC, the development of the impoverished Mekong region as a means of rectifying the wide wealth gap among regional countries is widely deemed one essential building block for any such community. So, how the tug-of-war between Japan and China over the development of the Mekong region will be played out could have ramifications for the future political and economic landscape of the entire East Asia.

In a speech made in Singapore in January 2002 during an ASEAN tour to spell out his Southeast Asian policy, Koizumi reminded the audience of the helping hand Japan extended to the countries battered by the 1997-1998 economic crisis.

“Japan at the time of Asia’s financial crisis played a role in easing that crisis,” he said. Japan extended a total of $80 billion in financial assistance, including $30 billion under the so-called New Miyazawa Initiative, to help Asian economies weather the crisis. “A friend in need is a friend indeed,” Koizumi said in the speech. Koizumi also said that in the 21st century, as sincere and open partners, Japan and ASEAN should strengthen their cooperation under the basic concept of “acting together – advancing together”.

For the 10 ASEAN members, the two sayings Wen and Koizumi cited – “A close neighbor is more helpful than a distant relative” and “A friend in need is a friend indeed” – may both be true. And the ASEAN members do not play the devil’s advocate with Koizumi’s call for them to act together and advance together. But perhaps they want to do so, not only with Japan, but also with China.

Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar on international politics and economy. Masaki’s e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com

China’s Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for Japan and the United States

February 4, 2010

By Elizabeth Economy

[This is a comprehensive contribution to an ongoing discussion of East Asia and the Pacific in an era of transformation. Earlier contributions by Gavan McCormack and Wada Haruki (on Northeast Asia), by David Rosenberg (on China and Southeast Asia), and by Lora Saalman (on the changing Chinese-Indian-U.S. strategic relationship) all raise issues posed by the rise of China as a major economic power in Asia and globally, and the repercussions of changing power relations reverberating throughout Asia. Noting that China remains a distant third to the U.S. and Japan in trade and investment in East and Southeast Asia, Economy highlights China’s rapid advance, above all in the realms of economics and finance, but also extending to a broad realms including governance, the resolution of territorial conflicts, the environment and others, with particular reference to Southeast Asia. At a time of rising China-Japan tensions, China appears to be making major multifaceted gains throughout Southeast Asia. This article also examines the possibilities of regional trajectories in which the U.S. role is sharply reduced. Japan Focus]

Introduction

During the past few decades, China’s foreign policy has undergone a remarkable transformation from one predicated on China as a developing country consumed with issues of domestic concern to one that acknowledges and even celebrates China’s potential as a regional and global power. Particularly since the turn of the century, China’s economic success has enabled it to pursue a greater role on the international stage, backing up its claims to regional and global leadership with growing economic and military might. Nowhere is China’s presence more keenly felt than within Southeast Asia, where increasing Chinese activism is met with a combination of both enthusiasm and significant trepidation.

There are clear signs of China’s more active diplomacy, including growing trade relations, the signing of numerous cooperative agreements, and an increasing number of high-level visits to the region by senior Chinese officials. Chinese trade officials have trumped their Japanese counterparts, marching through Asia to structure a regional free trade agreement. Chinese development assistance is flowing freely to Laos, Burma, and Cambodia, and China is becoming the destination of choice for foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade from its wealthier East Asia neighbors. In the security realm, China has put forth several proposals to develop new security arrangements based on principles of mutual cooperation and security and is pursuing bilateral security arrangements throughout the region. Even in the arena of transnational issues, such as public health, drug trafficking and the environment, a source of significant contention between China and many of its neighbors, Chinese officials have been promising and delivering on new initiatives.

China’s diplomatic offensive in Southeast Asia has raised questions in the U.S. and throughout Asia concerning the nature of China’s rise and its implications. Advocates of a China threat scenario have long argued that China desires regional hegemony and that U.S.-China relations in this regard are a zero sum game. Analogies are made between the rise of China and that of Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan: China’s rise will necessarily be highly disruptive to U.S. preeminence in the global system, stability in Asia, and the international system writ large.[1] Others paint a picture of China returning to the glory days of the Middle Kingdom, using its economic might to establish an empire with tentacles reaching out throughout most of Asia and transforming its neighbors into little more than vassal states.[2] Still other analysts argue forcefully that China’s rise can be managed through integrating the country into international norms and regimes, thereby ensuring that China has a stake in preserving the status quo.[3] In this scenario, as the Chinese themselves have insisted, China’s rise will be peaceful, serving an ameliorative function in international affairs: enhancing global security, promoting peaceful trade, and addressing transnational challenges.

Such debate arises against the backdrop of a perception among some scholars that China’s aggressive engagement with Asia contrasts starkly with a policy of relative neglect by the United States, the region’s traditional hegemon. The Asia strategy President Bush enunciated at the outset of his term focused overwhelmingly on East Asia: militating against the rise of China, ensuring peaceful relations between Taiwan and the mainland, and enhancing ties with America’s traditional allies and trading partners, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Relations between Southeast Asia and the United States were perhaps well described as “a policy without a strategy.”[4] While U.S. relations with Southeast Asia, as with most of the world, seemed to develop common purpose in the wake of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, D.C. on September 11, 2001, over time, much of this shared sense of purpose has dissipated. The White House’s doctrine of pre-emption, unilateralism, and invasion of Iraq led to a precipitous decline in America’s reputation among many publics throughout the world, including those in Southeast Asia. Moreover, President Bush’s singular focus on security issues, such as the war on terror and the North Korea nuclear threat, during his time at the 2004 APEC summit, did little to persuade many regional leaders that the White House understood the region’s priorities of domestic economic development and political stability.

The contrast between the perceived “rise of China” and “decline of the United States” makes it easy to reach the conclusion that China is beginning to stake its claim as the region’s hegemon, that the region will welcome China’s advances, and that the U.S. is ill-positioned to meet this challenge. Still, we need to question whether such an assessment is accurate. And, if it is, does it matter? And if we answer both in the affirmative, what are the long-term implications for the United States?

Does it Matter?

To take perhaps the most important question first: does it matter who holds top billing in Asia? At some point it might not, but right now it clearly does.

The economic and security significance of Southeast Asia to the United States is well established. As the Council on Foreign Relations task force report The United States and Southeast Asia: A Policy Agenda for the New Administration pointed out in 2001, “Southeast Asia’s importance should be evident: it is home to almost 525 million people, commands a GNP of greater than $700 billion, is our fifth-largest trading partner, holds a position of great geostrategic consequence sitting aside some of the world’s most critical sea-lanes (the Strait of Malacca, through which nearly half of the world’s trade passes), and features a growing number of emerging democracies.”[ 5] Perhaps most important in the current political context, U.S. leaders view Southeast Asia as a fertile breeding ground for terrorist activities.

The preeminent role of the United States in Asia, moreover, has permitted the U.S. to help shape regional politics in ways that directly serve U.S interests. For example, in 2001, in the immediate wake of the terrorist attacks against the United States, President Bush successfully reoriented the agenda of the APEC leaders’ summit in Shanghai away from trade and investment to terrorism. It is a focus that has remained in each APEC summit since, despite the grumblings of many members. At the 2003 summit, APEC members enshrined the war on terror in the final declaration, stating that transnational terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction pose “direct and profound challenges to APEC’s vision of free, open and prosperous economies.” They further agreed to commit APEC “not only to advancing the prosperity of our economies but also the complementary mission of ensuring the security of our people.”[6] This trend continued at the 2004 meeting in Santiago, where combating terrorism once again found its way into the post-meeting declaration [7] and President Bush delivered a speech publicly warning “Axis of Evil” members Iran and North Korea about their nuclear ambitions.[8]

Within Asia more broadly, the United States has played a critical role in trying to ensure the security of the region. The ability of the Bush administration, for example, to engage all five other relevant nations to support the six-party talks on the North Korea nuclear threat has been essential to re-engaging North Korea in a manner that may finally achieve a verifiable and enforceable agreement.[9]

Moreover, issues such as public health, environmental protection, human rights, and drug trafficking all suggest that Asia needs the United States for its commitment to transparency, openness, and human rights protection; a commitment that China does not evidence consistently, at least at the present time. And finally, as already noted, Asia’s role in shaping the future of the U.S. economy also argues for the U.S. to retain a dominant role in the region.

Is it True?

What is the reality of China’s new diplomacy and what does it portend for U.S. influence in the region? China’s rise to date appears to be much less about the “inevitable conflict of rising power” theory popular in some circles than about creeping power transition. Chinese thinkers, themselves, have recognized that the international community is concerned by the potential implications of China’s rise and have taken pains to ensure that China’s rise is perceived as non-threatening.[10]

In spring 2003, China’s leaders signaled a dramatic shift in the country’s foreign policy approach. Senior Party adviser Zheng Bijian publicly articulated the leaders’ new vision as heping jueqi or the peaceful rise of China.[11] According to Zheng, this rise has been occurring since 1978 and will continue until the mid 21st century. The pronouncement acknowledged a transition from a foreign policy that had been predicated on China as a developing country consumed with issues of domestic concern to one that declared China’s potential as a regional and global power. At the same time, within China, it was viewed as an important counterweight to the prevalent “China threat” or “China collapse” theories in the West.[12] One of the central tenets is that China will never seek hegemony. Li Junru, Vice-President of the Central Party School, explicitly outlined the benefits to China’s neighbors, stating, “China’s rise will not damage the interests of other Asian countries. That is because as China rises, it provides a huge market for its neighbors. At the same time, the achievements of China’s development will allow it to support the progress of others in the region.”[13] Although debate over the utility and accuracy of the “peaceful rise” theory continues within Chinese policy circles, asserting such a strategy was a diplomatically skillful move calculated not only to declare China’s intentions but also to reassure others concerned about China’s growing economic and military strength.

To realize this peaceful rise, China is using a sophisticated blend of trade, confidence building measures, and even development assistance to establish itself as an important regional leader. Even though it is far from supplanting either Japan or the United States as the most important regional player in economic or security affairs, it is steadily building bridges with other countries in the region and demonstrating a willingness to step into the breach when American or Japanese leaders hesitate to take action. Over the past few years, China has received much acclaim in the region for its multilateral approach, its ability to understand the needs of regional actors, and its desire to address the region’s concerns.

At the same time, many in the region remain wary of China’s growing activism, fearing the PRC will swamp the region economically and over time use its military might to establish a much more active role in policing the region. Too, China’s relations with the countries of the region vary significantly from close economic and military ties with Burma to growing economic linkages and lingering suspicions with Vietnam.

Moreover, discussions with officials throughout the region suggest that China has yet to assume a real leadership role outside the realm of trade. With regard to transnational issues—health, crime, and environment, among others—China is often a major contributor, if not the primary source of the challenge.

President Roh Moohyun of South Korea (left) and Premier Wen Jiabao of
China flank Japan’s Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro in a 2004 shot.

Driving Regional Economic Growth

China’s greatest advances in the region have come in the economic realm. In 2000, former Philippine President Estrada said, “Frankly, I think China wants to take over Asia.”[14] But China has worked hard to assuage such fears. Yang Jiechi, China’s Ambassador to the United States, stated in a speech to the Asia Society in 2002 that the “rising tide lifts all boats,” intimating that as China succeeds, so too will the rest of Asia.[15] While some regional officials and analysts were initially skeptical, China’s actions largely appear to support such rhetoric. In 2004, Malaysian Prime Minister Abduallah Ahmad Badawi stated, “China is today a creator of prosperity of the highest order. Political and social linkages are bound to eventually follow suit. It is therefore important to use every opportunity and establish ties.”[16]

Yang and Badawi’s claims are supported by China’s growing role as an engine of economic growth for the region. During 1995-2002, China-ASEAN trade grew an average of 19% annually; in 2002, it reached a record $54.8 billion—an increase of 31.8% from 2001.[17] In 2003 it topped $78 billion,[18] and Chinese officials claim it passed $100 billion in 2004.[19] From the perspective of Southeast Asia, China’s trading patterns are particularly beneficial; Southeast Asia as a whole maintains a trade surplus with China of US$8 billion annually, largely from its enormous exports of raw materials and precision machinery.[20]

At the same time, China has been actively pushing for a regional free trade agreement that will encompass Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand in 2010 and incorporate Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia by 2015. Experts have suggested that once the China-ASEAN FTA is established in 2010, China’s exports to ASEAN will grow by $10.6 billion or 55.1%, and ASEAN’s exports to China will surge by $13 billion or 48%.[21] The total trade volume will reach $1.2 trillion.[22]

China also agreed to an “Early Harvest Package” that is perceived by the region as “largely a concession by China” to provide early benefits through tariff reductions on 573 products including agricultural and manufactured goods.[23]

Individual Chinese entrepreneurs are also expanding China’s economic reach throughout Laos and Burma. In some areas, locals now use only the yuan and speak Chinese.[24]

Still, skeptics could point to the fact that both Japan’s current trade with ASEAN (almost $136 billion in 2004) and that of the United States (more than $136 billion in 2004) significantly exceed that of China. And the response to China’s growing economic presence in the region has not been uniformly positive. In some sectors, China’s expansion is not welcome: electronics, furniture, motorcycles and fruits and vegetables are just some of the areas in which Chinese goods have begun to supplant those produced in Southeast Asia.[25] In both Indonesia and Malaysia, people complain that jobs are being lost to China. The surge in Chinese textile exports since January 2005 has also produced stiff competition for countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam. A growing Chinese economic presence could also fuel latent resentment against the sizable population of Chinese economic elites in the region.

Overall, however, trends suggest that both China and Japan are offering growing markets for Southeast Asian goods and producing more goods desired by Southeast Asian countries. Japan-ASEAN trade jumped from $119 billion in 2003 to $135.9 billion in 2004,[26] while U.S.-ASEAN trade has remained relatively stagnant, increasing from roughly $130 billion in 2003 to $136 billion in 2004.[27] Such trends are likely to continue as both Japan and the United States proceed far more slowly in developing free trade agreements with regional actors than China. Thus far, the United States has established bilateral free trade agreements with Singapore and Thailand. U.S. agricultural subsidies, however, and concerns of most of the poorer countries in Asia over foreign investment rules, antitrust regulation and transparency in government procurement, are likely to slow any additional bilateral trade negotiations with the United States.

Recently, Japan has been more aggressive in pursuing its own bilateral FTAs, with an eye toward the formation of a regional FTA in the future. It has signed bilateral free trade agreements with Singapore and Mexico, and is hoping to conclude trade agreements with the Philippines in 2005. Talks with Malaysia and Thailand have progressed more slowly, however, and Japan has also initiated talks with Indonesia, Chile, and South Korea. In contrast to China, however, Japan talks less about what a regional free trade agreement will bring to the region, and—perhaps for domestic consumption—more about the overwhelming benefits that it will bring to the Japanese economy, which already runs a trade surplus with the region. The Japanese government believes that a free trade agreement with ASEAN would bring as much as $18 billion to Japan’s GDP and create as many as 260,000 jobs.[28]

China’s rapid strides in expanding its trade relations with Southeast Asia have been paralleled by a growth in its role as a source of regional investment. As it secures the resources necessary to fuel its growth, China is investing heavily in mining, natural gas, and logging opportunities throughout the region. China has committed US$100 million in aid and investment to Burma and is developing Indonesian natural gas reserves, investing in infrastructure development in the Philippines, establishing rail and highway links with Cambodia, Thailand and Singapore, and promising to dredge part of the Mekong River in Laos and Burma to make it suitable for commercial navigation.

Still, in terms of development assistance, China lags far behind the regional leader, Japan. Japan is the top aid donor to ASEAN members; in 1997, it pledged US$30 billion in assistance to strengthen the economies of the region; and by 2001 it provided 60% of the development assistance to the region.[29]

Finally, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, many actors, particularly Japan, have been paying increasing attention to issues revolving around the stability of Asian currencies. As is well known, during the financial crisis, China not only refrained from devaluing the yuan but also provided a US$1 billion loan bailout of Thailand. In contrast, many in Southeast Asia complained that the United States was interested only in imposing an IMF straitjacket. American efforts at the 2003 APEC summit to persuade Asian allies to criticize China’s exchange rate policy were received poorly by the region. Since that time, China has tried to appear accommodating, undertaking some limited reform in its currency practices in July of 2005.

With Japanese leadership, the region has moved forward to develop a range of regionally-based currency arrangements that exclude the United States. Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are exchanging data on short-term capital flows. The regional economies are attempting to establish an early warning system that would involve monitoring balance of payments, exchange rate regimes, and levels of foreign borrowing.[30] At the same time, the Chiang Mai Initiative, launched in 1999, has contributed to a flurry of bilateral swaps, worth $17 billion dollars, involving Japan-Korea, Japan-Thailand, Japan-Philippines, Japan-Malaysia, China-Thailand, and Japan-China. Other agreements are in the works, including two involving China: China-Malaysia, and China-Philippines.[31] Despite objections by the IMF and the United States, in June, 2003, “China and 10 other Asia-Pacific countries, including five ASEAN members, agreed…to establish an Asian Bond Fund worth more than $1 billion” to help “bail out economies in crisis.”[32] This was followed by a second bond fund initiative announced in December 2004 for an additional $2 billion fund to invest in Asian currency-denominated government bonds.[33]

Such developments strengthen the sense of an Asia for Asians, and an Asia that does not necessarily involve the United States. While Japan has played a leadership role in developing these new currency arrangements, China will likely become an increasingly important force. As China takes steps to make its currency convertible, it may well emerge as the dominant regional currency. According to one analysis, Japan’s banking and debt crisis makes the yen “less suitable as a vehicle for wider Asian monetary integration,” and the U.S. dollar may not retain its dominance in a trade regime “dominated…by links with China.”[34]

The reality, then, is that China is assuming a leadership role in the regional economy and aggressively pursuing an ASEAN+China free trade agreement. Yet Japan remains the predominant source of investment, retains a larger trade relationship, and drives the currency negotiations within the region. The United States continues to be the region’s most important trading partner, but the stagnant trade suggests that the U.S. may be finding other markets, such as China, more attractive; unless greater attention is paid to contributing to Southeast Asia’s continued economic growth, the U.S. will rapidly lose its stature as the region’s key trading partner.

Securing the Region

While China has moved aggressively to promote closer economic relations with Southeast Asia, its initiatives in the security arena have been more tentative. Chinese political analysts nevertheless increasingly acknowledge the potential for China to play a more far-reaching role in the region’s security. As Vice director of the China Institute of International Studies Ruan Zongze notes, “The development of China is conducive to security and stability in the region. China lies at the joint of the “curve of turbulence” through the Eurasia continent to northeast Asia and this region is where the interests of major powers converge and therefore has a lot of ‘hotspots’. A stronger China would have more leverage in mediating regional conflicts, and thus contributing to cooperation.”[35]

The basic thrust of China’s approach has been to identify its regional security outlook more closely with that of other regional actors. For example, in October 2003, China signed on to ASEAN’s 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation,[36] the essence of which is a set of commitments to respect the ideals of sovereignty and non-interference in others’ internal affairs, and to settle disputes peacefully. Beijing also hosted a Security Policy Conference with senior officers from twenty-four ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) countries and partners in November 2004 focusing on a wide range of potential future challenges to regional security.[37] In concrete terms, China has established a listening post in Burma; and in 2002, China signed its first ever border agreement with Vietnam. The two countries also conducted a joint campaign to clear all the landmines along their border, resulting in an increase in border trade of $4 billion yuan.[38]

Yet challenges remain. Taiwan in particular has the potential to undermine the PRC’s image as an accommodating and benign rising power. In July 2004, Singapore deputy prime-minister Lee Hsien Loong, son of Singapore’s former leader Lee Kuan Yew, visited Taiwan, prompting a sharp response from the PRC which cancelled a visit to Singapore by China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan[39] and suspended a number of other government talks.

In addition, China pledged to accede to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (a regime that the U.S. rejects). In a surprising move, however, in fall 2004, ASEAN rejected China’s bid to join the accord on the grounds that it would prefer all nuclear powers join at the same time. This might signal some desire on the part of ASEAN that China not assume a high profile role on the security front, without the simultaneous engagement of the other regional powers.[40]

At the same time, negotiating China’s claims to the islands and resources (particularly oil and natural gas) of the South China Sea remains the greatest area of concern for most Southeast Asian states. Approximately 25% of the world’s shipping moves through the Sea, and the South China Sea is an area that engages most of the regional actors: it is bordered by China and Taiwan on the north, Vietnam in the West, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei in the South and the Philippines in the east.[41] To date, Vietnam controls the largest number of islands in the largest island grouping, the Spratlys, but in 1987, China set up an observation station there and five years later the National People’s Congress passed a law declaring sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. There have been sporadic conflicts between the Philippines, China and Vietnam over control of the islands. China has also long rejected any multilateral code of conduct that would restrict its access to the resources of the Sea.

Yet in August 2002, to the great surprise of many in the region, China signed a declaration of conduct that essentially promised to discuss joint development in the South China Sea. China did not, however, agree to sign a code of conduct.[42] In September 2004, Vietnam accused China and the Philippines of planning surveying operations in its territorial jurisdiction;[43] one month later, China retaliated, accusing Vietnam of violating its territorial sovereignty by inviting bids for oil exploration in the Spratlys.[44] Premier Wen Jiabao appeared to try to defuse the situation by proposing greater regional consultation: at the China-ASEAN summit in November 2004, he suggested the establishment of a senior-level working group to tackle the issues of joint development.[45] Yet even as the two countries wrangled, analysts argued that a combination of a previous agreement by both countries to settle disputes through negotiation and rapidly rising trade relations would mitigate any potential negative fallout from the Spratlys dispute.[46] Indeed, in March 2005, the three countries took a step toward peacefully resolving the conflict when state-owned oil companies from China, Vietnam, and the Philippines signed a three-year deal to jointly search for oil and gas in the disputed area.[47]

The U.S., while perhaps making less headway rhetorically in furthering regional security, has moved aggressively to shore up its bilateral military-to-military relations with a number of countries in the region. Since the late 1990s, the United States has taken steps to enhance some security relationships and re-establish others, such as those with the Philippines. Such efforts received new impetus after the terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001. The Bush Administration labeled Southeast Asia the “second front” in the war on terror. Evidence indicates that Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand all have served as meeting grounds for terrorists with links to al-Qaeda.

In early January 2002, Singapore arrested 13 such terrorists, eight with direct links to al-Qaeda.[48] Thus, the war on terror has reinforced a sense of urgency in deepening U.S. military ties throughout the region. The U.S. has forged strong security relationships with Thailand, the Philippines and Australia, all of which it considers major non-NATO allies. It has also taken steps over the past year to begin negotiating a framework agreement with Singapore to establish a strategic partnership in defense and security. The U.S. is working with Thailand to improve port security and expending significant resources to train and arm the Philippine military in its anti-terrorism work, among other things. The United States has particularly targeted the Philippines for military assistance, offering $30 million in military financing assistance for 2005, up from $17 million the year before.[49]

Washington has also resumed International Military Education and Training (IMET) cooperation with Indonesia, although weapons sales remain prohibited, and is providing assistance to the Indonesian police to improve their counter-terrorism capacity. While Malaysia rejected the presence of U.S. troops redeployed from Japan and South Korea for the sake of “national dignity and sovereignty,” since 2002, Malaysia has nonetheless been engaged in a series of training exercises with U.S. naval forces, as have Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines. China has participated as an observer in some of these exercises.

Overall, the states in Southeast Asia play a critical role in “providing intelligence, undertaking surveillance of suspicious groups, and, in some cases, watching over US freight craft and warships laden with military and other supplies for the war and post-war effort in Afghanistan.”[50]

Still, the recent heightened U.S. interest and military presence in the region has been received with distrust in some quarters in Southeast Asia. Scholars, policymakers and track-two participants in security dialogues have voiced several concerns: first, that the United States interest is ephemeral; as soon as interest in terrorism wanes, the United States will again forget about Southeast Asia. Second, that the war against terrorism may be used by authoritarian governments such as that of Malaysia to strengthen their own hands by eliminating legitimate opposition groups, such as the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party or Islam Se-Malaysia. And finally, that the United States did not consult other countries in its pursuit of the war against terrorism, but rather acted largely unilaterally, demanding that countries fall in behind the United States or risk being labeled “not with us.”[51]

Certainly, the U.S. focus on preemption and regime change, especially as revealed in the 2002 National Security Strategy, has become a source of significant concern among Asian publics. Asian countries have traditionally been strong supporters of the norms of sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-intervention. Already in Indonesia, 74% of Indonesians are worried that the U.S. might become a military threat to their country. The Indonesian Vice-President Hamzah Haz stated in 2003, “Who is the real terrorist? Well, it’s America…In fact, the U.S. is the King of terrorists because of its war crimes in Iraq. The US condemns terrorists but itself carries out terror acts on Iraq.”[52] In the Philippines, Vice-President Teofisto Guingona reportedly resigned as foreign minister as a result of the growing military ties between the Philippines and the United States. He argued, “America should stop bullying countries like the Philippines. We became independent, but…we are still under their rules and supervision.”[53] The Pew Foundation’s 2003 report indicated the percentage of Indonesians who held a positive image of the United States fell from 61% in summer 2002 to 15% in summer 2003.[54]

Moreover, regional analysts are concerned that the focus of the Bush administration on a military response to the terrorist challenge is misguided, and that the United States must embrace more nuanced political strategies. Singapore defense analyst Kumar Ramakrishna has argued, “It is strategic inefficiency to physically eliminate scattered terrorist groups without addressing the roots of the anti-Americanism that animates them.” Chinese strategic analyst Guo Xinning also points out in his assessment of the U.S. security presence in the region that the U.S. military presence in the region is not likely to diminish the increasing anti-American sentiments among Muslims in the region.[55]

Such concerns were reinforced at a June 2004 security conference for Asia defense ministers, in which U.S. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld reiterated White House demands that Asian countries improve their effort to counter terror. Several Asian defense ministers and scholars responded that a new U.S. approach employing soft power such as education and development assistance in the region would better serve American interests in engaging Asian publics in the fight against terrorism.[56] And Singapore analyst Simon Tay has written eloquently about the disturbing evolution of U.S. relations with Southeast Asia from one of partnership to one of primacy. In his judgment, if the United States lives up to its own values—“championing aspirations of human dignity,” “igniting a new era of global economic growth,” and “expanding the circle of development by opening societies and building the infrastructure of democracy,” U.S. leadership will be much more acceptable to the people of the region.[57]

The White House may have recognized the damage done to its reputation by its overwhelming focus on the war on terror and Iraq. During January 2005, the United States assumed a leadership role in responding to the humanitarian crisis in Southeast and South Asia brought on by the devastating Tsunami. This represented perhaps one step toward recapturing some of what Tay and others have called for in U.S. leadership.

The picture that emerges in the security realm is thus a mixed one. While China has not asserted itself as an alternative to U.S. leadership, the potential exists. Despite strengthened military ties between the U.S. and some regional actors, a strong reservoir of distrust and enmity exists toward the United States in many of the region’s publics. It is plausible that over time, China’s message of non-interference, cooperative security, and the diminution of the role of the U.S. that is implied by China’s approach will gain in popularity, although the United States may yet again broaden its approach to security and regain territory it has lost.

Environment, Drugs, Health and Governance: China Confronts Itself

While China’s economic and security diplomacy has advanced China’s reputation within the region, its relative lack of transparency in addressing transnational issues has been a continued source of angst among regional actors. Across the board on such issues as environmental protection, public health, drug trafficking, and governance, China generally has been less of a positive force than a challenge for other regional actors to negotiate. Still, there are signs of change in the willingness of the Chinese leadership to work more openly and cooperatively with its neighbors on these issues.

In May 2002, the Chinese government issued a position paper at the ARF outlining the necessity of improving cooperation on non-traditional security issues, such as terrorism, drug trafficking, HIV/AIDS, illegal migration and environment. While the paper was short on specifics, it highlighted the complex transnational nature of these challenges and committed China to play an integral role in working with other countries to resolve them.[58]

In some respects, this commitment has been manifested on the ground. After years of refusing to cooperate in international efforts to combat drugs, for example, China is now playing a far more constructive role, particularly in addressing the trafficking in heroin and amphetamines, among other illicit drugs, that are crossing the border from Burma through China to Hong Kong, Taiwan and beyond. China signed onto three major U.N. drug conventions and hosted a meeting in Beijing in May 2002, with the United Nations Drug Control Program, as well as Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia to discuss strategies.

Over the past decade, Beijing has become increasingly concerned about the drug problem within its own borders and links between drug traffickers and broader organized crime efforts, as well the relationship between drug use and China’s growing problem of HIV/AIDS. In July 2004, China hosted a conference for over 100 prosecutors from throughout ASEAN on combating transnational crimes, such as drug trafficking.[59] Still, Beijing is likely to have a difficult time clamping down effectively: a recent report issued by China’s State Council indicated that local governments in China are increasingly dependent on the revenues from organized crime, such as drug trafficking and prostitution, making local officials reluctant to prosecute criminals.

China’s interest in cooperation on transboundary health issues also received new impetus with the advent of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which the government acknowledged as an epidemic during spring 2003. While the Chinese government initially refused to admit to the severity of the problem, once it did, it moved quickly to rein in the negative publicity. In April, 2003, at a Special China-ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting on SARS, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for much deeper cooperation on health issues: a reporting mechanism for future epidemics with a rapid response program; cooperation on SARS research with an investment of Y10 million (US$1.2 million) by China; and a future meeting on SARS to be hosted by Beijing.[60] The response from the region to Wen’s remarks was quite positive. And China’s apparent openness concerning the outbreak of Avian flu during summer 2004 was also well-received. Still, China’s record on communicating the nature of its HIV/AIDS problem—both to its own citizens and to the international community—while improving, suggests that reforms in the public health sector and openness about the nature of these problems will continue to remain a challenge.

In the environmental arena, China has long been perceived as the source of several regional problems. South Korea and Japan, for example, have worked for many years to assist China in improving its efforts at controlling the SO2 emissions that cause acid rain. Despite significant funding assistance, close cooperation on monitoring emissions, and commitment on the part of China’s environmental officials, China’s rapid economic growth and weak environmental enforcement have yielded little improvement.

In addition, on more sensitive issues, China has proved a more recalcitrant actor. This is perhaps nowhere more evident than in China’s development of the Mekong River. According to one report, twenty percent of the waters of the Mekong originate in China; during the dry season this figure jumps to seventy percent.[61] China already has one dam operating on the upper reaches of the River and a second, Dachaoshan, under construction. A third is planned for 2012. For countries downstream, including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, China’s dam development is already having negative consequences. During summer 2004, the Mekong was at its lowest level ever, with serious consequences for fisheries and rice production, significant income sources for communities within all of the downstream countries. Cambodia’s fish catch dropped by almost 50% from the prior year.[62] At the same time, the water level fluctuates wildly depending on dam operations. While the Mekong River Commission has attempted to engage China, the Chinese have demonstrated interest neither in participating in the work of the commission nor in listening to the concerns of its neighbors.[63]

China is also a major source of biodiversity loss throughout Southeast Asia. Rare turtles, tigers and seahorses, among other wildlife, are being consumed voraciously by China; one analyst reports that the problem has only become worse with China’s growing wealth. Businesspeople are now willing to pay $1000 rather than $100 for illegal wildlife parts, providing even more incentive for illegal wildlife trade.[64] Moreover, China has become one of the world’s largest importers of tropical timber from the region, and Chinese logging firms have developed a reputation for illegal practices, contributing to severe deforestation in Burma and Indonesia.[65]

Finally, in the broader political realm of governance—transparency, rule of law, and human rights—China has made significant strides in recent years. China’s strong relations with some of the more brutal of the region’s regimes, such as Burma, also make it a potentially important partner for other nations interested in taking action to improve the region’s overall practices. In June 2003, for example, ASEAN rejected its traditional reluctance to interfere in the domestic affairs of other countries and condemned Burma’s human rights practices, in particular its detention of the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and attacks on her supporters. At the 2003 APEC leaders’ summit, APEC’s host Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra stated that China should be party to any discussions of progress toward democracy in Burma. Soon thereafter in April 2004, China took the surprising step of supporting a resolution in the United Nations Human Rights Commission urging the government of Myanmar to restore democracy.[66]

Thus, although it is unlikely that China will assume a leadership role in promoting good governance in the very near future, and even though the region undoubtedly recognizes the limitations of China as a leader on such issues, China’s role as a contributor to transnational problems dictates its presence at the table. To the extent that China is reforming its own practices and increasingly behaving in a responsible manner both domestically and internationally, the opportunity for China to assume a leadership role will increase exponentially.

Conclusion

China’s efforts to assuage the fears of its neighbors by adopting a foreign policy approach that is active, non-threatening, and generally aligned with the economic and security interests of the region is clearly making headway. The substance underlying the positive diplomacy is most notable in the trade realm, where China is rapidly emerging as an engine of regional economic growth and integration that may well challenge Japanese and American dominance in the next three to five years. China’s role as an important source of FDI for the region and player in regional currency schemes is also likely to grow rapidly.

In the security realm, China’s diplomacy, while likely rhetorically appealing to regional actors, has yet to make significant inroads in a regional security structure dominated by the United States and its bilateral security relationships. Moreover, while China has signed a declaration of conduct governing the South China Sea, how the region moves forward to develop the resources of the Sea will depend significantly on the actual measures that China takes to ensure that ventures are cooperative and equally developed. Still, if anti-American sentiment within the region continues to grow, China may find more room to maneuver as it attempts to develop a regional security architecture that minimizes American influence.

If China is to emerge as a real leader within Southeast Asia, it will also need to assume more of the social and political burden that leadership entails. Throughout Southeast Asia, the United States, for all its misadventures, has generally been perceived as a champion of democracy and human rights. Public opinion polls and statements by various Southeast Asian analysts and officials suggest that this reputation has been tarnished during the first term of the Bush administration. Yet, there is no other country willing or able to claim the mantle of such leadership. While Premier Wen’s post-SARS call to arms for regional action to combat this deadly disease was heartening to the region and the world, it also was prompted by significant international condemnation of China’s initial decision not to acknowledge the severity of the problem. As China continues to advance itself as a regional leader, its policies on issues such as health, drugs, the environment, and human rights will face additional scrutiny not only for their impact on the region but also for the more profound question they raise concerning the potential of China’s moral leadership.

China’s rise within the region also suggests a larger, longer-term struggle to define the nature of Asian relations. Many of China’s initiatives promote a far more integrated Asia than currently exists. Such a future may seem unlikely. It is a region marked by disparate geography, languages, political systems, standards of living and degrees of integration with the outside world. In addition, if China and Japan were to assert a collective leadership role, it would necessitate a far more cooperative relationship between the two countries than is the case today. Moreover, unlike in the case of European Union, there is no single, agreed-upon threat in Asia. Southeast Asian leaders appear torn between their long-term concerns over a bullying United States, a hegemonic China and a resurgent Japan; as Muthaih Alagappa has argued, “The primary purpose of the state-centered regional security order in Asia is to consolidate the nation-state, enhance its international power and influence, and create a safe and predictable environment.”[67]

Asian integration also presumes a much deeper set of integrated policies and norms than currently exist. Moving from a forum that encourages free trade to a regional free trade agreement requires one significant expansion in cooperation; progressing from an Asian monetary fund to a common currency requires yet another. In the security arena, advancing from a largely stagnant set of talks to a regional code of conduct in the South China Sea represents one advance in coordination, while moving to a formal treaty governing sovereignty over the resources of the South China Sea demands a far more intrusive set of obligations, potentially requiring a far more demanding leadership role on the part of China.

Moreover, in many respects, Southeast Asian leaders appear eager to maintain an identity independent of China, Japan, and the United States. While western analysts sometimes dismiss ASEAN as primarily a forum for discussion, officials from member states repeatedly indicate that ASEAN offers them an opportunity to negotiate on more equal footing with the potential regional hegemons. Moreover, for a country such as Vietnam, regional organizations such as ASEAN and APEC offer an important opportunity for more outward looking Ministries such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to push for greater integration with the global community under the cover of ASEAN or APEC. Still, fifty years ago, no political analyst would likely have predicted the establishment of the European Union.

For the United States, in the best case scenario, a more activist China will share leadership with the United States and Japan, helping to forge consensus within a more active and integrated region to address its political, security and economic challenges. Such an Asia would likely have a better chance of either pressuring or inducing change in some of the more recalcitrant actors in the region such as Burma and North Korea. There might also be an opportunity for regional actors to relieve the United States of some of the burden of leadership in the region by assuming a more proactive role in responding to regional crises such as the humanitarian crisis brought on by the tsunami in South Asia in 2004, political unrest in Indonesia or in coordinating a response on transnational or global threats such as terrorism. In addition, as Asia increasingly contemplates its own security arrangements, “keeping America in” may prove a continued necessity for Japan or other Asian states still concerned about a rising China, much as France believed its interest to be better served by reliance on NATO to balance closer integration with Germany during European unification.[68]

A second scenario, less attractive from the perspective of the United States, suggests a traditional balancing act, in which the nations of Asia use China to ignore the United States on selective issues, developing alternative approaches to security, political and economic affairs in ways that perhaps more directly serve their domestic interests.

In a worst case scenario, as China assumes a more dominant economic, political, and even security role in the region, the U.S. will confront an Asia less likely to respond favorably to U.S. security initiatives, less dependent on U.S. economic leadership and U.S.-run financial institutions, and potentially less open to the full range of U.S. diplomatic initiatives on issues such as human rights and terrorism. With an intra-Asian monetary fund, for example, may come less potential for the United States to press its agenda for continued domestic economic reform in countries such as China and Vietnam. A regional free trade agreement could prove discriminatory to U.S. products and trade initiatives. If China and Japan become the France, Germany and Britain of Asia (however unlikely in the current political environment), U.S. security priorities such as establishing a missile defense shield and ensuring Taiwan’s security will likely find less support than if the U.S. remains the dominant military actor in the region. Certainly, too, while some of the luster has come off of America’s reputation as the dominant supporter for human rights and democracy in Asia, it is a mantle that no other country in Asia appears ready or capable of assuming. Given the precarious state of democracy in a number of Southeast Asian countries and the struggle to emerge in a number of others, the predominance of the United States in this capacity is particularly critical.

At least in the initial phase of what appears to be a long-term trajectory of growing Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, the United States remains the region’s most important trade partner; force for regional security; and proponent of greater political transparency and human rights protection. Japan, in turn, is overwhelmingly the dominant source of development assistance and architect of new regional currency practices and institutions. While China is in no position to displace either the UnitedStates or Japan—nor is the region as a whole necessarily interested in seeing this come to pass—China’s greater presence and activism suggest at the very least that the United States and Japan cannot remain complacent about the status quo that has governed political, economic and security relations for the past few decades. Shared leadership within Southeast Asia will likely include China in the near future, with all the potential benefits and challenges that such leadership will entail.

Elizabeth Economy is C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director, Asia Studies, The Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future. This is an updated version prepared for Japan Focus of an article that appeared in Journal of Contemporary China, August 2005. Published in Japan Focus on October 6, 2005.

[1] Aaron L. Friedberg, “Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia,” International Secuirty vol.18 no.3 (Winter 199-1994), pp. 5-33.
[2] Juan T. Gatbonton, “China moves in as East Asia’s core-state,” Manila Times (January 8, 2004); and Eric Teo Chu Cheow, “An Ancient Model for China’s New Power; payng Trivute to Beijing, “ International Herald Tribune (Jnauary 21, 2004), p.6.
[3] Elizabeth Economy and Michel Oksenerg, eds., China Joins the World: Progress and Prospects (New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1999).
[4] Rommel C. Banlaoi, “Southeast Asian Perspectives on the Rise of China: Regional Security after 9/11,” Parameters (Summer 2003).
[5] The United States and Southeast Asia: A Policy Agenda for the New Administration: report of an Independent Task Force (New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations, 2001), pp.1-2.
[6] Geoffrey Barker Bangkok, “APEC Heads Unite in War on Terror,” Australian Financial Review (October 22, 2003), p.1.
[7] APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, Santiago Declaration: “One Community, Our Future,” (Santiago, Chile, November 20-21, 2004).
[8] Fran O’Sullivan, “Summit’s Agenda Hijacked by Bush,” New Zealand Herald (November 23, 2004).
[9] Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. Says North Korean Demand for Reactor Won’t Derail Accord,” New York Times (September 21, 2005).
[10] See for example a discussion of China’s rise by Ruan Zongze, Vice Director of the China Institute of International Studies, “What are the implications of China’s peaceful rise to the world?” http://www.crf.org.cn/peaceful rise/ruanzongze2.htm
[11] Technically the term heping jueqi translates into “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” but rise is perceived by many Chinese policy analysts as less likely to provoke concern among other countries. (Yiwei Wang, “The dimensions of China’s peaceful rise,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/printN.html
[12] “China to be mainstay for peace after peaceful rise,” 2004 Boao Forum for Asia http://www.china.org.cn/english/international/94030.htm
[13] Jifang Zan, “Peaceful Rise,” Beijing Review http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/BoaoSpecial-200416(B).htm
[14] David Lamb, “China Works to Improve Relations with Southeast Asian Neighbors,” Los Angeles Times (November 15, 2000).
[15] Jiechi Yang, Speech at the Asia Society, New York, NY (December 3, 2002)
[16] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and Opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Exerts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press, (March 30, 2004).
[17] Bian Shen, “New Opportunity for China-ASEAN Trade,” Beijing Review (May 1, 2003), p.18.
[18] “Get on China’s Economic Train: ASEAN-China Cooperation on Fast Track,” People’s Daily (English) (May 26, 2004)/
[19] “China, ASEAN Trade over US$100 Billion in 2004” China Radio International, http://www.cri.com.cn (February 4, 2005).
[20] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and Opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Experts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press (March 30, 2004).
[21] Shen, op cit., “New Opportunity,” p.19.
[22] Hongmei Shen, “Knocking Down Asian Trade Barriers,” Beijing Review (April 17, 2003), p.42.
[23] Zaidi Isham Ismail, “ASEAN, China to complete Talks by June,” Business Times (March 30, 2004), p.2.
[24] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Exerts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press, (March 30, 2004).
[25] Denis D. Gray, “Anxiety and opportunities Mount as Chinese Colossus Exerts Influence on Southeast Asia,” Associated Press, (March 30, 2004).
[26] “ASEAN, Japan to pursue comprehensive economic partnership”, Chinaview (September 29, 2005).
[27] “Joint Press Statement of the 18th U.S.-ASEAN Dialogue”, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Washington, D.C., June 28, 2005).
[28] Audrey McAvoy, “Fearing rivalry with China, free Trade agreements are suddenly the rage in Japan,” Associate Press (April 2, 2004).
[29] “Japan Talks Trade at ASEAN Summit,” (December 10, 2003) http://www.cnn.com/2003/world/asiapcf/east/12/10/japan.asean.summit.ap/
[30] Oxford Analytica, “East Asia: Currency Cooperation,” (May 24, 2002).
[31] Ibid.
[32] Lyall Breckon, “SARS and a New Security Initiative from China,” Comparative Connections 103 (July 2003), p. 76.
[33] “Asia-Pacific central banks to launch new fund for regional bonds,” Japan Economic Newswire (December 16, 2004).
[34] Michael Vatikiotis and Bertil Lintner, “New Asian Dollar: The Growing Reach of China’s RMB,” http://tawainsecurity .ag/news/2003/feer-052903.htm
[35] Zongze Ruan, “What are the Implications of China’s Peaceful Rise to the World,” http://www.cfr.org.cn/peacefulrise/ruanzongze2.htm
[36] “China joins Treaty of Amity, Cooperation in Southeast Asia,” People’s Daily (October 9, 2003).
[37] David Shambaugh, “China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order,” International Security 29 (3), (winter 2004-2005), p. 88.
[38] Udai Banhu Singh, “Major Powers and the Security of Southeast Asia,” Strategic Analysis: A Monthly Journal of the IDSA, XXIV (2), (May 2000), p.8.
[39] Jason Leow, “China rejects DPM Lee’s reasons for Taiwan Visit,” Singapore Straits Times (July 22, 2004).
[40] “Regional Perspective: The growth and limits of China’s reach in Southeast Asia,” The Nation (October 4, 2004).
[41] Singh, p.3.
[42] Willy Wo-Lap Lam, “China aiming for ‘peaceful rise,’ (February 6, 2004)
CNN.com/20040WORLD/asiapcf/02/02/willy.column/
[43] Gilbert Felongco, “Manila Unfazed by Spratly Isles Tensions,” Financial Times Information (September 11, 2004).
[44] “China Protests Vietnam’s Bid in South China Sea,” Agence France Presse (October 20, 2004).
[45] “Major Points of Premier Wen’s Speech at the 8th China-ASEAN summit,” Xinhua New Agency (November 30, 2004)
[46] Ray Cheung, “Verbal Sparring Eases Tensions over Spratlys,” South China Morning Post (November 15, 2004), p.6.
[47] “Joint exploration starts around disputed Spratlys”, Energy Compass (September 2, 2005).
[48] Rosemary Foot, “Human Rights and Counter-terrorism in America’s Asia Policy,” Adelphi Paper, no. 363, Institute of [49] Oscar S. Villadolid, “The Listening Post,” Financial Times Information (November 30, 2004).
[50] M.J. Hassan, “Terrorism:Southeast Asia’s Response,” January 3, 2002 Pacific Forum CSIS, PacNet 1, via e-email from pacforum@hawaii.rr.com in Rosemary Foot, “Human Rights and Counter-terrorism in America’s Asia Policy,” Adelphi Paper 363 (International Institute for Strategic Studies 2004), p.46.
[51] Author Interviews in with officials and scholars in Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand (November 2002).
[52] Mark Baker, “Southeast Asia Turns on Bush,” The Age, (March 20, 2004), p.4.
[53] Ibid.
[54] Views of a Changing World: The Pew Global Attitudes Project. The Pew Research Center for People and the Press (June 2003), p.19.
[55] Xinning Guo, “Strategic Premium,” Beijing Review (March 18, 2004), p.17.
[56] Murray Hiebert and Barry Wain, “Same Planet, Different World,” Far Eastern Economic Review (June 17, 2004), 26-27.
[57] Simon S. C. Tay, “Asia and the United States after 9/11: Primacy and Partnership in the Pacific,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs Vol. 28:1 Winter 2004.
[58] “China’s Position paper on Enhanced Cooperation in the Field of Non-Traditional Security Issues,” (May 2002) http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/gjs/gjzzyhy/2612/2614/tl5318.htm#
[59] “China-ASEAN Prosecutors-General Conference Opens,” Xinhua News Agency (July 8, 2004).
[60] “Speech by Premier Wen Jiabao of China at the Special China Leaders’ Meeting on SARS,” (April 29, 2003) http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/zgcydyhz/zgdmfdtbhy/t26292.htm
[61] Alex Liebman, “Washed down the Mekong,” South China Morning Post (July 21, 2004).
[62] “Damming of the Mekong sparks fear for farmers,” South China Morning Post (June 30, 2004).
[63] John Vidal, “China Mekong Dams Worry Downstream Nations,” The Guardian (March 25, 2004).
[64] Dennis D. Gray, “Illegal Trade Derailing Southeast Asia Wildlife,” Associated Press (March 28, 2004).
[65] Elizabeth Economy, The River Runs Black: the Environmental Challenges to China’s Future (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), p.122.
[66] Peter Capella, “Pressure Builds on Myanmar as UN rights forum urges Suu Kyi’s release,” AFP (April 21, 2004).
[67] Muthaih Alagappa, “Constructing Security Order in Asia,” in Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order (Stanford, CA; Stanford University Press, 2003), p.79.
[68] Alyson Bailes, “Europe’s Defense Challenge,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 1997), p.16.

Vietnam’s Roaring Economy, the World Stage and the US

February 4, 2010

By Keith Bradsher

Keith Bradsher’s article rightly emphasizes the rapid progress that the Vietnamese economy has made since the adoption of reform policies (doi moi) twenty years ago, and its bright future prospects. Of course, positioning Vietnam’s growth rate between those of China and India does sacrifice a sense of proportion. While it is ranked fifteenth in world population, just ahead of Germany, Vietnam’s GDP adjusted for purchasing power is the equivalent of Algeria or Hong Kong. China’s Guangdong Province, with a similar population, has a provincial product four times the size of Vietnam’s GNP, and Thailand’s economy is twice the size. In 2005, moreover, the IMF ranked Vietnam 123rd in the world, with GNP per capita estimated at $3,025 (adjusted for purchasing power), just below India.

But why is a tale of a poor nation with an ongoing record of development but still severe problems of poverty related with such breathless enthusiasm? If the American war in Vietnam was, as George Herring put it, “America’s longest war,” then its post-war attitude toward Vietnam might be described as “America’s longest ignore.” The Paris Peace Accords were signed in January 1973, Vietnam was reunified in 1975-76, but the United States long blocked Vietnamese access to the regional and world economies and it did not officially recognize Vietnam until July 1995, the same month that Vietnam joined ASEAN. The first ambassador did not arrive until almost two years later, and a general trade agreement, one of the toughest and most detailed that the US has ever negotiated, wasn’t signed until July 2000. What has never been on the table: official apology, reparations, or reconstruction aid for the nation destroyed by the U.S. invasion and war. Now the Bush administration is laboring to extend normal trade relations (PNTR) status to Vietnam before its formal admission to WTO in December. If President Bush’s impending visit marks America’s final realization that Vietnam is a country, not a war, then Bradsher’s enthusiasm may be justified. Brantly Womack

HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam — Nearly four decades ago, South Vietnamese leaders mapped out their battle plans inside the presidential palace here. When they lost the war, the palace became the base for the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, which worked to impose tight Communist control.

But in September it was the scene of a very different gathering: a board meeting of the Hongkong and Shanghai Bank.

In the three decades since Vietnam has gone from communism to a form of capitalism, it has begun surpassing many neighbors. It has Asia’s second-fastest-growing economy, with 8.4 percent growth last year, trailing only China’s, and the pace of exports to the United States is rising faster than even China’s.

American companies like Intel and Nike, and investors across the region, are pouring billions of dollars into the country; overseas Vietnamese are returning to run the ventures.


Nike in on the
ground floor

In the latest sign of Vietnam’s economic vitality, trade negotiators from around the world are preparing, after more than a decade of talks, to put the finishing touches on an agreement, possibly by Oct. 26, for Vietnam to join the World Trade Organization. President Bush, President Hu Jintao of China, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and other heads of state plan to come to Hanoi in mid-November for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting.

For Vietnam, the meeting will be a coming-out party, critical to its pride in much the way the 2008 Olympics in Beijing are for China.

“I think they are the next China,” said Michael R. P. Smith, chief executive of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation. “It’s not the scale of China, but it’s a significant economy.”

Through the end of last year; Vietnam’s growth rate exceeded that of Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea and even India, its closest rival.

The latest Asian economic tiger, Vietnam now produces and uses more cement than France, its former colonial ruler. The main index for the Ho Chi Minh City stock market and a smaller exchange in Hanoi have nearly doubled in value this year. Vietnam has become the talk of investment bankers and investors across Asia.


The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange

But with such growth has come controversy, here and in the United States. Republicans in Congress are divided over a coming vote soon after the midterm elections: Should the United States grant permanent, full trade relations to Vietnam, given the two countries’ history and Vietnam’s current position, where it sells almost nine times as much to Americans as it buys?

Corporate America is divided, too, over a Bush administration initiative to win votes for full trade status by throwing a bone late in September to Southern senators representing states where textiles are made. Vietnamese officials are furious with Washington over what they see as a last-minute protectionist attempt to limit the exports of their country’s booming garment industry.
In Vietnam, nearly double-digit growth is starting to produce the same shortages of skilled labor as in India and China. Executives at multinationals like Groupe Lafarge of France and Prudential of Britain say that local accountants, human relations managers and other professionals are so scarce that salaries are soaring 30 percent to 50 percent a year.

Many educated Vietnamese now are like Ha Nguyen, 34, a chemical engineer who is working at his third job in three years, having received big raises each time he changed companies. “Right now, it’s easy in Vietnam to find a job,” he said, pausing while doing a chemical analysis of cement quality at a corporate laboratory here.

Roads and ports in this country are increasingly choked with cars and ships, the congestion worse than China’s but not yet as bad as India’s. Yet deep-seated corruption has slowed construction; the government has put the brakes on highway building across northern Vietnam this year after uncovering a graft scandal that led to resignations and detentions all the way to the top of the Transport Ministry.


Rush hour scene

Balanced against these problems is a government that, like China’s, has embraced capitalism after becoming disillusioned with the widespread poverty and sometimes hunger that accompanied tight state control of the economy.

Economic liberalization policies have been pursued in earnest since the early 90’s, after poor harvests and economic mismanagement left millions facing malnutrition in 1990.


The agrarian
economy

Among the architects of this change are a handful of bright economists like Le Dang Doanh, a top adviser to the government and the Communist Party who studied in the old Soviet Union and East Germany but became deeply disillusioned with the corruption and inefficiency of state-owned industries.

“The reform is definitely irreversible,” Mr. Doanh said. “Any attempt to come back to a centrally planned economy, to overplay the state sector, is economically irrational, inefficient and psychologically is counterproductive.”

If anything, Vietnam has leaned in the other direction. The Finance Ministry has just produced a draft personal-taxation law, expected to be approved by January, that offers more tax breaks for the wealthy than the United States does. Inheritances among immediate family members will be entirely exempt from taxation. So will interest on all but the largest bank accounts, and a fierce debate is under way over whether capital gains should be taxed.

And in some ways, Vietnam is more pro-business than China. Reluctant to anger city dwellers, state-owned power companies in China minimize blackouts in residential areas but cut off power to factories as much as three days a week, forcing them to run on costly diesel generators.

Vietnam takes the opposite course. Takashima Masayuki, general director of a Japanese-owned factory that makes shirts and jackets in Bien Hoa city, said the factory did not even have a generator because the authorities never allowed power to be cut off in the industrial zone where it is situated. By contrast, Ho Chi Minh City residents say they have brief power interruptions as often as twice a day.

Like China and India, Vietnam has benefited enormously from the return of a diaspora — people who had fled the country. Thousands of overseas Vietnamese have come home after learning English, gaining entrepreneurial experience and acquiring technical skills.


A Conference in Ho Chi Minh
City in June to encourage
diaspora investment

Phu Than, Intel’s country manager for Vietnam and Indochina, was 14 when he was evacuated in the last days before the fall of Saigon, leaving by helicopter with his mother, an employee of the old American Consulate in Danang.

He earned an electrical engineering degree from the University of California, Davis, then joined Intel and now oversees the largest foreign investment in Vietnam, the construction of a semiconductor assembly and test factory that will cost $300 million for the first phase and another $300 million for a likely expansion later.

American businesses are catching on to Vietnam’s attractions, but they still lag behind Taiwan companies, which are the biggest foreign investors in Vietnam, followed by Singapore.

Vietnam’s appeal to foreign companies rests on its young labor pool. Three-fifths of its 84 million people are under 27. And with a policy of limiting families to two children, as distinct from China’s one, Vietnam will continue for many years to have a large proportion of hard-working low-skill employees.

Typical is Nguyen Thi Hong, 30, who rides each morning on her rusty bicycle to stand outside factories and look for work in Bien Hoa, 15 miles northeast of Ho Chi Minh City; in China, factories advertise far and wide even for unskilled workers.

A brightly patterned kerchief protecting her from air pollution, Mrs. Hong said she and her husband, a mechanic who has found work here, have left their year-old son with his parents in their hometown in the central part of the country.

Vietnam has reduced the percentage of its people living in abject poverty — less than $1 a day — to 8 percent from 51 percent in 1990, a greater advance than either China or India.

But incomes are still far short of Western levels. Few of these Vietnamese can afford to eat American beef or fly in Boeing jets. The country’s trade surplus with the United States has soared — it exported $5.56 billion worth of goods to the American market in the first eight months of this year while importing $625.9 million.

That imbalance, much of it in the garment industry, has complicated the Bush administration’s effort to persuade lawmakers to approve normal trade relations with Vietnam. The administration tried to shore up support by sending a letter on Sept. 28 to two Republican senators, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, saying that the Commerce Department may file its own antidumping cases against low-price shipments of Vietnamese clothing without waiting for American companies to do so.

But the letter has upset retailers and other importers, who worry that they may end up paying any punitive duties that are imposed.

“The retail industry is really split on this,” said Brad Figel, the government affairs director at Nike, which remains in favor of the bill and is seeking clarification of administration policy.

Antidumping duties are an emotional issue in Vietnam, after the United States imposed them on catfish exports three years ago and the European Union recently imposed them on Vietnamese and Chinese shoe exports. Vietnamese officials warn that dumping cases could hurt the regulatory environment for American businesses and cause layoffs at garment factories, where most workers are low-income women.

“These people suffered from the war a lot already, and we would not want them to suffer again,” said Nguyen Anh Tuan, vice director of Vietnam’s Foreign Investment Agency. “American investors should not lose their foothold in Vietnam.”

Talk to garment-factory workers in Vietnam these days, though, and they are looking forward to a future where their children live far better than they do. “My parents were very poor,” said Nguyen Thu Hoai, 28, said as she folded green Nike jackets in a state-owned factory in Ho Chi Minh City.

“But I will be able to give my son a good education,” she said, describing a modest Prudential life insurance policy she bought for her 2-year-old son that includes a savings fund for educational expenses. “He will have more opportunities.”

Keith Bradsher has been the Hong Kong bureau chief of The New York Times since 2002.This article appeared in the New York Times, October 25, 2006. Posted at Japan Focus on November 7, 2006.

Brantly Womack is Professor of Foreign Affairs at the University of Virginia. His most recent book is China and Vietnam: The politics of asymmetry.

China’s Strategic Southeast Asian Overture

February 4, 2010

By David Fullbrook

BANGKOK – If all goes to plan, China will for the first time ever in July host joint military exercises with troops from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the strongest indication yet that Beijing’s recent economic charm offensive toward the region is starting to pay real strategic dividends.

Beijing extended the invitation during last month’s ASEAN summit, innocuously for peacekeeping training and disaster-zone management and reconstruction. ASEAN is reportedly still mulling the offer, but many security analysts believe that the group is poised to accept the historic offer and that Beijing would not have extended the historic offer if the chances of acceptance weren’t high.


Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo (left), Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao (second left), Philippines President
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (third left), Indian Premier
Manhmohan Singh (right) among leaders of ASEAN
nations and observers in January 2007.

Beijing’s friendly overture would appear to mark a significant strategic departure, with China moving toward more limited multilateralism rather than its historical unilateralism to advance its regional-security interests. Developing cooperation with neighboring militaries would hypothetically help China secure its porous southern periphery and free up more resources for projecting its power and influence globally.

China is implementing what appears to be a two-phased strategy toward the region, characterized first by promoting growing economic and investment linkages and now by offering limited military assistance. It’s a well-calculated gambit aimed at stealing a march from the United States, specifically through the development of competing linkages and personal relationships with individual ASEAN members’ militaries.

China’s strategic overtures obviously have the US on edge. This week, Washington announced that it would indeed stage its annual “Cobra Gold” joint military exercises with Thailand. Those exercises, the largest in Southeast Asia and which have in the past included troops from Singapore and Malaysia and observers from China, had been in doubt because US law prohibits certain types of military assistance to governments that seize power through anti-democratic means – as was the case with last September’s Thai coup. Soon thereafter, Beijing attempted to fill the military gap by offering Thailand US$49 million in military aid and training.


A Thai soldier and a U.S. soldier undergo training
during Cobra Gold 2005.

Significantly, China has traditionally shied away from formal military ties with regional countries that could be construed as alliances. Likewise, ASEAN has steadfastly avoided entering formal security pacts and collective defense mechanisms. The group of pro-Western states was founded in 1967 partially to guard against the spread of communism, which China was then promoting – often through disruptive means. They had relied heavily on US strategic assurances to counterbalance China’s, as well as the Soviet Union’s, influence beginning as early as the 1950s.

Beijing arguably started to embrace military multilateralism in the late 1990s with the formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which loosely links four Central Asian states, Russia and China together through combined training and patrols in fighting against terrorism, extremism and separatism. China’s trade and investment have since risen sharply in Central Asia, giving it greater influence to counter America’s regional strategic designs, which included military bases in Uzbekistan for a few years and the ongoing use of a base in Kyrgyzstan, on China’s border.

Strategic Passageway


Wen Jiabao arrives at the ASEAN summit
in January 2007.

If diplomatically possible, China would doubtless like to lead a similar security organization for Southeast Asia – a particularly strategic passageway for China’s booming seaborne trade with India, the Middle East, Africa and Europe, which passes through the region’s busy and congested shipping lanes.

Moreover, Southeast Asia is fast emerging as an important supplier of China’s industrial commodities and energy, and the region as a whole now runs a trade surplus with China. China is set to displace the US as ASEAN’s top trade partner as early as next year, a position the Sino-ASEAN free-trade agreement should cement when it comes into force in 2010. Meanwhile, there is still no sign of a counterbalancing free-trade proposal with the US.

To be sure, longtime disputes among ASEAN’s member states, driven alternately by nationalism, territorial disagreements and historical rivalries, have given the lie to the group’s pretense of harmony and have complicated China’s attempts to push through universally accepted proposals – particularly on military matters. The United States’ still-strong influence plus ASEAN’s traditional distrust of multilateral security arrangements have meant China has had to tread carefully for the past decade.

To build confidence, China is now an active and engaging participant in the grouping’s various talk shops, including significantly the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which also includes the US, Japan and India among its participants. ARF has long discussed pertinent regional-security issues, but only toward the end of building confidence and specifically not by introducing any binding conflict prevention, conflict resolution or disarmament pacts.

ASEAN’s goodwill toward China rose significantly in 2003, when Beijing agreed to a code of conduct toward easing territorial disputes among ASEAN members and China over the Spratly Islands, which some think are rich in oil. All sides recently reaffirmed their support for the code, which has helped to ease tensions in recent years. Moreover, China was quick to send US$60 million worth of aid and supplies to regional counties affected by the 2004 tsunami.


Workers in Beijing load goods for tsunami victims
in December 2004.

Though thoroughly outshone by the United States’ – and to a lesser degree Japan’s – rescue and financial response, Beijing’s benevolent-big-brother posturing toward the region represents a diplomatic course shift that started in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, when it offered $1 billion in financial assistance to regional countries. The US, in comparison, was widely criticized across the region for its perceived opportunistic approach in dealing with the region’s suddenly cash-strapped governments.

China also arguably displayed its support for ASEAN last month by making rare use of its veto at the United Nations Security Council, killing a US-sponsored resolution condemning Myanmar’s rights record, which would have badly embarrassed the entire grouping on a global stage.

The US has so far wholly failed to match China’s softly-softly approach toward ASEAN, which has significantly degraded the United States’ bilateral relations with particular regional countries. The US administration’s emphasis on securing counter-terrorism cooperation from countries in the region has taken precedence over most cordial diplomacy and reportedly rendered bilateral relations awkward with Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

Both those countries have recently rejected as an infringement of sovereignty Washington’s offer to send US Navy ships to help crack down on the pirates in the congested Strait of Malacca – which coincidentally is also where an estimated 75% of China’s fuel imports travel through.

China has notably not made any hard demands on ASEAN, in effect practicing the group’s own adherence to “non-interference” in other countries’ domestic affairs. At the same time, Beijing is now adroitly and aggressively leveraging its recent successful diplomacy and growing economic linkages to overcome historical distrust and build new strategic assurances aimed at displacing the United States’ strategic influence over the region. And judging by ASEAN’s warm response to its recent overtures, China’s grand designs are proceeding very much as planned.

This article appeared at Asia Times on February 21, 2007.

The New American-led Security Architecture in the Asia Pacific: Binding Japan and Australia, containing China

February 4, 2010

Richard Tanter

When Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo and John Howard signed Japan’s first comprehensive security agreement in half a century, and its only one apart from the treaty with the United States, the two countries raised five crucial foreign policy signals, and fundamentally securitised the relationship between the two countries.


John Howard with
Foreign Minister Aso

Firstly, the Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation [1] codifies and publicly acknowledges for the first time the existing wide-ranging security cooperation between Japan and Australia. Their bilateral cooperation already includes intelligence collaboration, Japanese bases in Australia, maritime cooperation, official exchanges, joint exercises, and counter-terrorism activities, in addition to joint participation in a wide range of mainly US-led multilateral activities. Already in 2006, Desmond Ball judged that: “the security relationship between Australia and Japan has now grown to the extent that, if the range of cooperative activities could be summated, Japan would be in the top five of Australia’s security partners – after the US, UK, New Zealand, but ahead of Indonesia, [and that] Australia would probably rank in the top five in Japan’s list of security partners.” [2]

As with any such general treaty, secret attachments or MOUs will most likely spell out the details of new levels of cooperation. But beyond codifying the arrangements already in place, the Joint Declaration’s statement of aims and the generality of the areas of cooperation it promises prefigure expansion into much more intensive collaboration in the future.

Secondly, by explicitly “affirming the common strategic interests and security benefits embodied in their respective alliance relationships with the United States, and committing to strengthening trilateral cooperation,” Japan and Australia are signaling an overturn to a half century of East Asian security architecture. An anti-Soviet system of US-dominated but uncoordinated bilateral alliances is being replaced by a nascent anti-China US-dominated multilateral alliance system. The fact that South Korea, now moving closer to China and unpicking its joint military command with the US, is not yet included in this new arrangement, warns us that the East Asian politics behind this new tripartite security architecture is decidedly wobbly.


East Asia and the Pacific

Thirdly, while the only country other than the US mentioned by name in the Joint Declaration is North Korea, the pact is a clear signal of intent to exclude China. Precisely what degree of exclusion, not to say containment, of China, is intended is not yet clear. The contradictory pressures between wanting to ride the Chinese economic gravy train and beat the drum about supposed military expansionism are clear. But two things are certain.

On the one hand, despite the rhetoric about North Korea, the present government in Japan sees China as its most serious security threat and will not make a comparable defence pact with China. Australia may not see China in the same way, but it will not balance the defence pact with Japan with a parallel bilateral or multilateral security agreement with China, despite its economic commitment to – and dependence on – China.
On the other hand, the full meaning for China of the pact and the US-Japan-Australia alliance depends on the still unresolved policy conflict in the US as to how it, as the global hegemon, will respond to the rise of China to world power status. Once the US preoccupation with the ‘war on terror’ and the enfeebling debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan pass, then the question of whether the US will seek to contain the rise of China will move to the forefront of the Washington agenda. In the meantime, it is hardly surprising that the Chinese are assuming the worst.

Fourthly, the Joint Declaration confirms the already accelerating tendencies for both Japan and Australia to militarize their foreign policies. In Japan, over the past decade or so, more nationalist leaders have thrown off the restraints of their dovish conservative predecessors in an effort to make Japan “a normal country”. The Self-Defence Forces (SDF), almost six times the size of Australia’s military, are deployed in Iraq and the Indian Ocean as well as in UN peace keeping roles. The old mantra of “purely defensive defence” has given way to a declaration of a right to pre-emptive strike and the acquisition of the necessary offensive capacity. Special forces, intelligence satellites, missile defence, and normalizing overseas deployments are the order of the day. The most senior ministers in the Abe Junzo Cabinet have called for a debate on the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

The Joint Declaration also extends the Howard government’s preference for military solutions, and adds a northern buttress to its mission of regional stewardship, albeit a mission under American delegation. Moreover, not only does the intensification of security relations with Japan follow on a similar Australian pact with Indonesia last year, it comes just one day after Indonesia and Japan announced they are stepping up defence cooperation. An Indonesian defence spokesman made the wider strategic point clear when he noted that “Japan has significant influence as a stabilizer in the region following the phenomenal development of China’s and India’s economies.” [3]

Fifthly, the defence pact symbolizes the aversion both governments have to coming to terms with the genuine security problems facing the two societies and the Asia Pacific region. The Joint Declaration includes a brief reference to “human security”, mentioning pandemics and disaster relief. In the 1980s Japan, recognizing the inadequacy of military solutions to issues such as energy insecurity and the consequences of global inequality, invented “comprehensive security”, and developed the notion of human security far beyond what is talked about in Canberra. But in reality, while climate change, pandemics and energy insecurity pose real and present threats, Tokyo and Canberra are increasingly preoccupied with militarized responses to less palpable threats. Australia’s defence budget of more than $22 billion towers over the $100 million allocated to assist regional neighbours with avian flu, while last year Japan, gave $47 million to assist ASEAN countries with bird flu.

Australia can expect to see more Japanese bases such as the intelligence satellite ground station at Landsdale in the Perth International Telecommunications Centre. It can expect more and closer cooperation between the Australian Defence Force and Japan’s SDF in maritime interdiction for both border security and the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative. It can expect more joint exercises and training with the SDF in Australia. It can expect more testing of Japanese space vehicles from Australian test ranges. None of these are in themselves undesirable.

Yet even apart from the clear and imprudent intent to counter China, the past three decades of piecemeal accumulated defence collaboration codified in the Joint Declaration, most of which was initiated in secret and almost all lacking serious parliamentary scrutiny, carries a momentum which will lead to still further expansion. Moreover, the Declaration’s vaguely worded promises of cooperation over “counter-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction” and “counter-terrorism” can easily be stretched to cover almost any conceivable contingency. Parliamentary and public debate about the kind of relationship we want with Japan, and scrutiny of what is pre-figured by the Joint Declaration, are urgent.

Mr. Abe’s most recent denial of Japan’s history of wartime sexual slavery was a disaster for Japan’s claim, confirmed in the Joint Declaration, to be a country based “on democratic values, a commitment to human rights, freedom and the rule of law”. Australia’s decision to emphasize the military dimension of its relationship with Japan, in mutual concert with the United States, above an insistence on serious Japanese commitment to those values, demonstrates a profoundly imbalanced and imprudent understanding of the true interests and concerns of the peoples of both countries.

Richard Tanter is Senior Research Associate at Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability and Director of the Nautilus Institute at RMIT. He is also a Japan Focus associate. He has written widely on Japanese security policy, including ”With Eyes Wide Shut: Japan, Heisei Militarization and the Bush Doctrine” in Melvin Gurtov and Peter Van Ness (eds.), Confronting the Bush Doctrine: Critical Views from the Asia-Pacific. His most recent book, co-edited with Gerry Van Klinken and Desmond Ball, is Masters of Terror: Indonesia’s Military and Violence in East Timor in 1999. Contact e-mail: richard.tanter@rmit.edu.au.

This article was posted at Nautilus on March 15, 2007. A slightly revised version was posted at Japan Focus on March 17, 2007.

Notes

[1] Australia – Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, 13 March 2007.

[2] Desmond Ball, Whither the Japan-Australia security relationship? Austral Policy Forum 06-32A 21 September 2006.

[3] RI, Japan to Increase Defence Co-operation, Jakarta Post 2007-03-13

Japan Vies With China for Dominance in Indochina and ASEAN

February 4, 2010

Hisane Masaki

Amid intensifying rivalry between Tokyo and Beijing over influence in Asia, Japan is revving up its drive to strengthen relations with countries in Indochina, an economically backward but geopolitically important part of the region.

The target countries are Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, which are collectively referred to as the “CLV” countries. To be sure, these countries are all relatively small in terms of economic size and
represent a tiny fraction of East Asia’s economy.

Their combined gross domestic product (GDP) was only about US$62 billion in 2005, with Vietnam, the biggest of the three, accounting for about 85% of the total, with $52.8 billion. The combined GDP of Japan, mainland China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) totaled nearly $9 trillion in 2005.

But their location, with China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, looming over them has made the CLV nations much more important for Japan’s Asia policy than their economic figures suggest. In addition, for countries outside ASEAN such as Japan and China, assistance in the development of the CLV nations, the least developed of the ASEAN nations along with Myanmar, has become an increasingly important avenue to strengthened ties with the entire ASEAN and thereby their clout in the region. ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam and has a combined population of some 530 million.

Last week, Japan invited Laotian Prime Minister Bouasone Bouphavane. During his four-day trip, Bouasone met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other Japanese officials to discuss bilateral relations and regional and global issues. Bouasone also had an audience with Emperor Akihito. For Laos as well as Cambodia and Vietnam, Japan is by far the biggest aid donor.


Prime Ministers Abe (right) and Bouasone

Among other things, Abe and Bouasone agreed to accelerate negotiations on an investment treaty between the two countries to conclude it at an early date, according to their joint press statement. The treaty is aimed at encouraging Japanese investment in the landlocked nation.

The two leaders also emphasized the importance of an enhanced integration of the Laotian economy into the world economy. Abe expressed his support of Laos’ accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Cambodia and Vietnam already joined the WTO, in October 2004 and in January this year, respectively.

In addition to bilateral relations, Abe and Bouasone discussed regional and global issues, including the issue of North Korea’s nuclear program and Laos’ accession to the International Whaling Commission (IWC). Laos has diplomatic ties with North Korea, while Japan does not. Japan wants Laos to use its relations with Pyongyang to help resolve the issues of the reclusive Stalinist state’s past abductions of Japanese citizens as well as its nuclear ambitions.

At the IWC, Japan is leading the pro-whaling camp, calling for the lifting of a moratorium on commercial whaling. Abe told Bouasone that he welcomes his country’s decision to join the IWC and looks forward to cooperating with Laos at the IWC. But Bouasone did not make it clear which side his nation will take – pro-whaling or anti-whaling.
On Friday, the day after Bouasone left Tokyo, Japan announced that Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen would make a four-day visit to Japan starting on June 13. During the visit, the countries are expected to sign an investment treaty aimed at encouraging Japanese investments in Cambodia. Japan has signed such treaties with 11 countries, including China, Russia and South Korea.


Hun Sen (right) and former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro
in a 2002 meeting

In November, Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet is scheduled to pay a visit to Japan. Last October, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung also came to Tokyo as the first official foreign guest invited by the government of Abe, who took office in September. The leaders issued a statement calling for a “strategic partnership” for peace and prosperity in Asia.

Tug-of-war

Amid growing talk of creating an East Asian Community in recent years, Japan and China have been jockeying for the leadership role in what will be the long and arduous process of community-building. The two Asian powers have competed for stronger and closer ties with ASEAN. Although the 10 ASEAN members are much smaller than Japan and China in economic size individually, they wield a strong voice in East Asian affairs as a group.

As East Asia began to move toward greater regional economic integration several years ago, China had a head start over Japan in strengthening ties with ASEAN by signing a free-trade agreement (FTA). The Sino-ASEAN FTA took effect in July 2005. Japan and ASEAN are still negotiating an FTA, although they are expected to ink the deal this year.

Two-way trade between China and ASEAN has been growing at a much faster pace than that between Japan and ASEAN. China’s investment in ASEAN is also surging sharply, although the amount is still dwarfed by Japan’s investment in the grouping.

China has taken a lead over Japan on the political front as well. China signed ASEAN’s 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in October 2003, a few months before Japan did. Japan initially balked at signing the ASEAN treaty, which provides for, among other things, peaceful settlement of conflicts and non-interference in internal affairs, out of political consideration to its most important ally, the United States.

In 2001, China signed a “Declaration of Conduct” with ASEAN to prevent conflicts in the South China Sea, where China, four of the ASEAN members – Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – and Taiwan claim all or part of the Spratly Islands. In March 2005, China agreed with Vietnam and the Philippines to explore for oil in the disputed waters.

These aggressive Chinese peace overtures toward ASEAN apparently reflect a desire to assuage the perception of China among some in ASEAN as the most serious security threat to their countries and thereby to forge closer ties with the grouping. Cementing ties with ASEAN in general – and the joint oil-exploration agreement with Vietnam and the Philippines in particular – is also seen as part of efforts to preempt a possible US-led containment of China.


Leaders at the China-ASEAN Summit, Kuala Lumpur, Dec 5, 2005

The Sino-Japanese tug-of-war over greater influence in Southeast Asia has also opened a new front – the Mekong River basin. Moves by Japan and China to help the development of the Mekong River basin have intensified in recent years.

The 4,425-kilometer Mekong River originates in Tibet and flows through China’s Yunnan province, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam into the South China Sea. It is the main artery for Indochina. The Mekong basin, abundant in natural and human resources, has attracted much attention as an untapped frontier for development since the early 1990s, after an end to the civil war in Cambodia and other Cold War hostilities in the region.

The Mekong region is increasingly seen by many Japanese and Chinese companies as a promising investment destination. But for Japan and China, assistance in the development of the Mekong region has also become a very important avenue to strengthened ties with the entire ASEAN.

For ASEAN, correcting the so-called “ASEAN divide” – the huge gap in wealth between rich and poor members – is a high priority as the grouping accelerates its economic integration with an ultimate goal of creating a fully integrated ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. Per capita income of Myanmar, for example, is less than one-hundredth of that of Singapore. The Mekong River’s development is widely believed to hold the key to the development of war-battered Indochina as a whole.

In the early 1990s, after years of civil war ended in Cambodia, Japan took the leadership role in efforts to develop the Mekong region, backed by its huge aid money, and secured a strong influence in the region. Japan also hosted an international peace conference for Cambodia in June 1990. It was the first time since the end of World War II that Japan had hosted an international conference to discuss peace in a third country. The warring factions in Cambodia signed a peace agreement in Paris in October the following year.

In 1992, Japan enacted a historic law enabling its Self-Defense Forces to participate in United Nations-sponsored peacekeeping operations abroad. Under the law, SDF troops were dispatched to join UN peacekeeping efforts in Cambodia prior to the country’s first postwar election in the spring of 1993. It marked the first overseas mission for SDF troops. Sending troops abroad had previously been a taboo in Japan because of the country’s war-renouncing, post-World War II constitution.

With the turn of the millennium, however, China began to turn the tables on Japan, while Japan rested on its laurels. China has aggressively cozied up to individual ASEAN members, including in Indochina, as well as ASEAN as a whole in recent years. A greater commitment to the development of the Mekong region is part of such efforts. Unlike Vietnam, which has a relatively large economy, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar have been heavily reliant on Thailand for economic growth. But Thailand’s influence in Indochina has been eroded since the 1997-98 Asian economic crisis, and China has filled the gap.

Among other initiatives, China hosted the second summit of the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-sponsored Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Cooperation program in Kunming, capital of China’s Yunnan province, in July 2005. The GMS has Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand and China as full members.

China has also offered financial and other assistance programs for the development of the GMS, has forgiven more than $1 billion in debts owed by Cambodia to China, and has expanded preferential tariffs for imports from Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. China has set up a special fund totaling $20 million within the ADB for poverty alleviation of the region. China has also provided military as well as economic aid to Myanmar in defiance of international criticism of that military-ruled country.

It would be fair to note, though, that China has attached a particular importance to the development of the Mekong region, primarily for domestic reasons. China hopes to turn the poorer western part of the vast country into a magnet for domestic and foreign investors and thereby to correct the widening gap in wealth with the flourishing eastern coastal areas, an issue that could threaten the country’s political stability and even the rule of the Chinese Communist Party.

Japan has funded infrastructure projects transcending national borders in Indochina on its own or in partnership with the ADB. China has also stepped up financial assistance for the development of that region, flexing its rapidly growing economic muscles.

Two big highway projects crisscrossing Indochina are seen by many as a symbol of the intensifying race for regional influence between Japan and China. One is the East-West Corridor project, led by Japan, to build a major highway, including the Second Mekong Friendship Bridge over the river, to link the port of Da Nang in central Vietnam, Savannakhet in southern Laos, Mukdahan in northeastern Thailand and then Mawlamyine in southern Myanmar. This project was almost completed at the end of last year.


Second Mekong Friendship Bridge in construction

The other is the North-South Corridor project, led by China, to build a highway linking Kunming and Bangkok via Laos. This project is expected to be completed by the end of next year. Japan balked at funding the Chinese-led project, partly for fear of lending China a hand to increase its influence southward in Indochina.

Apparently alarmed by China’s rapidly growing political as well as economic influence, then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan held talks with his counterparts from the CLV nations in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, in November 2004 for the first ever Japan-CLV summit. The second Japan-CLV summit was held in December 2005 in Kuala Lumpur.

At a foreign ministerial meeting between Japan and the CLV nations in the Philippines in January, Tokyo conveyed to the CLV nations its plan to host a ministerial meeting of Japan and five countries in the Mekong region, including the CLV nations, during fiscal 2007, which started in April, to discuss further cooperation for the region’s development. In their talks last week, Abe also explained to Bouasone Japan’s decision to make the Mekong region a priority target area for its economic assistance and expand aid for Laos and other regional countries over the next three years.

China remains by far the most powerful magnet for Japanese and other foreign investors in Asia. But Japanese companies have been on an investment spree in Vietnam as well in the past couple of years. Vietnam’s economic size and population pale before China’s. But the nation has even cheaper labor. Vietnam has become an increasingly popular investment destination for Japanese firms seeking to reduce their excessive dependence on China and spread their business risks in Asia.

The investment pact between Japan and Vietnam took effect in late 2004. Japan and Vietnam also kicked off FTA negotiations in January, separately from FTA negotiations between Japan and the entire ASEAN. Vietnam was also admitted to the WTO in January. WTO membership, which obliges Vietnam to open its markets wider to foreign competition and make its trade and investment rules and regulations fully compatible with international norms, is expected to fuel Japanese and other foreign investment in the country.

Meanwhile, Japan and Cambodia are expected to sign an investment treaty next month, and a similar pact between Japan and Laos is also in the works. Investment treaties, coupled with the full opening of the East-West and North-South corridors to traffic, might give a boost to Japanese investment in Laos and Cambodia as well as Vietnam.

In his talks with Abe last week, Bouasone expressed “his strong wish and commitment to develop special economic zones in other areas besides Savannakhet to make full use of the Second Mekong Friendship Bridge and highways under the East-West Economic Corridor framework”, according to their joint press statement. Many Japanese-funded companies in Thailand are becoming more interested in investing in neighboring Laos to take advantage of the closeness between the Thai and Lao languages – many Lao people can speak or read Thai – as well as much cheaper labor in Laos.

Meanwhile, with the construction of infrastructure such as roads and bridges and simplification of customs procedures progressing between China and Vietnam as well as within Indochina, international forwarders have begun to move to establish land transportation networks linking China and Southeast Asia. TNT of the Netherlands, for example, is preparing to complete a 4,000-kilometer-long truck transportation network from Singapore to China via Vietnam by the end of this year. Nippon Express Co, Japan’s largest forwarder, also plans to activate a 7,000km network liking the Chinese commercial hub of Shanghai and Singapore early next year.

Japan’s new tack

Amid an intensifying tug-of-war between Tokyo and Beijing over influence in Asia, Japan has taken a new tack recently to regain some of the ground lost to China.

Since his inauguration last September, Abe has advocated a more assertive foreign policy and further strengthening of the security alliance with the United States. He has also vowed to seek revisions of the postwar pacifist constitution to allow the nation to play a greater role in the international security arena, especially in step with the US.

In what is widely seen as a thinly veiled snub to China, among other countries, the Abe government has also been aggressively pursuing what it dubs “a value-oriented diplomacy”, advocating strengthened relations with countries that share common values, such as freedom, democracy, market economy, respect for human rights and the rule of law. Abe has put particular emphasis on strengthened ties with India and Australia as well as with the US.

Foreign Minister Taro Aso also unveiled his “arc of freedom and prosperity” initiative last November to enhance Japan’s relations with emerging democracies in Asia and Europe and actively support their democratic and economic development. In a speech unveiling the initiative, Aso expressed a strong desire to build such an arch “around the outer rim of the Eurasian continent through diplomacy that emphasizes values”.

“This region includes countries whose systems have been undergoing great changes now that the confrontation between the East and the West has ended,” Aso said.

When Aso announced this initiative, the CLV countries drew particular attention because they were the first names he specifically mentioned as his target nations and regions. “Concretely speaking, what I have in mind right now is Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, for example,” he said.

In a speech titled “On the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity”, delivered in March at a meeting of a Tokyo-based think-tank, Aso noted that while Abe and he visited Europe in January, he had his senior vice minister, Katsuhito Asano, attend the Japan-CLV foreign ministers’ meeting in the Philippines.

To be sure, the CLV nations may be among what Aso said are “countries whose systems have been undergoing great changes” since the end of the Cold War. But the CLV nations, especially Vietnam and Laos, still have a long way to go toward democratic reforms. Like China and North Korea, Vietnam and Laos are one-party states ruled by communist parties.

“Freedom in the World 2007”, the latest of annual surveys of political rights and civil liberties released early this year by Freedom House, an independent freedom watchdog based in the US, gave the CLV nations dismal ratings. Ratings range from 1 (the most free) to 7 (the least free). Among the CLV nations, Laos received the worst ratings – 7 for political rights and 6 for civil liberties, the same ratings China received. Vietnam’s scores were 7 for political rights and 5 for civil liberties and Cambodia’s 6 for political rights and 5 for civil liberties.

Meanwhile, Myanmar was given the ratings of 7 for both political rights and civil liberties, the same ratings given to North Korea. Thailand, another neighbor of the CLV nations, also saw its ratings lowered to 7 for political rights and 4 for civil liberties, because of a military coup last year that ousted a democratically elected premier.

Last September, the United Nations Security Council voted 10-4, with one abstention, to add Myanmar to its formal agenda. China and Russia are among the four members that voted against the move. Japan, which served a two-year term as a non-permanent council member until the end of last year, voted for the anti-Myanmar move.
Myanmar has been under strong pressure from the US and Europe over human rights and democracy. The country’s military rulers have kept Nobel Peace Prize laureate and pro-democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for much of the past two decades. Despite the decision last September, the UN has so far failed to take specific action against Myanmar. In January, China and Russia vetoed a US-drafted council resolution that would have demanded Myanmar’s military regime end political repression.


Aung San Suu Kyi

Japan has long advocated a policy of “constructive engagement” with Myanmar, rather than isolating that country, to encourage progress on human rights and democracy. Japan’s vote for the anti-Myanmar move at the UN signaled a significant departure from what the US and Europe have often grumbled was Tokyo’s too soft a policy toward Myanmar. But such a policy shift may be inevitable if Japan, a self-proclaimed Asian champion of freedom and democracy, is to match its words with deeds in pursuing its “value-oriented diplomacy”.

Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar on international politics and economy. Masaki’s e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com.

This article appeared at Asia Times on May 22, 2007. Posted at Japan Focus on May 25, 2007.

Suffer little Children: Legacies of War in Cambodia

February 4, 2010

David McNeill

Despite a “crackdown” on rampant illegal sex, Cambodia is still a world capital of pedophilia.


At 12, Pov knows the sexual geography of the riverfront area in Phnom Penh like the seasoned prostitute he has become. The four middle-aged Frenchmen in front of us? “They like girls,” he explains, giggling. “Small girls.” The sun-blackened and tattered woman a few yards away? She will rent her daughter for the price of a hamburger. If I don’t like boys he can fetch girls. Otherwise, in exchange for the meager contents of my wallet, Pov and his three barefoot, scruffy friends will guide me to a safe hotel and stay the night. “What would we do there?” I ask. “Up to you,” he says.

Child-sex broker in Poipet on the Thai border. He approached me in the street and asked me if I wanted “young girls” aged 10+. He brings customers to local brothels on the Cambodian side. “The best customers are Japanese and Koreans. They have money.” (All photos David McNeill)

As the sun sinks over the Mekong, Sisowath Quay in Cambodia’s choking capital is a slow-moving river of human traffic. Young couples walk arm-in-arm, tourists gaze at one of Asia’s most beautiful sunsets and children like Pov ply their trade, zeroing in on what they call rich foreign “lady-boys”, or gay men. In the crowd of mainly brown-skinned people, white men stand out like flies on a cake. Some are alone, wearing hats and jackets in the stifling evening heat, strolling or sitting on the river wall, eyeing the crowd. The Frenchmen stand chatting and smoking, exuding the easy calm of long-term residents.

“Girls?” says one of the men in heavily accented English, naked gut bulging over the waist of his khaki pants. “There are too many girls here; as young as you like, as often as you like.”  A man with a Liverpool accent calls Cambodia a “sweet shop” before becoming suspicious and hurrying away. These are no idle boasts. Give any city taxi driver five minutes and he’ll find a brothel where 12-year-old girls are hawked for US$20-$40. For $500-1,000 and a little more time, they will locate a virgin, boy or girl. Campaigners say children as young as three are still being trafficked and rented out all over this country, mostly to Asian men but also to foreign tourists pouring in through some of the most open borders in the world.

“I know of a brothel with 100 under-aged girls run by high ranking police and military officials,” says one NGO worker who requested anonymity. “There are brothels in some parts of the country where the clients are brought in buses.”

Such stories should belong to the past. After a decade during which Cambodia earned its reputation as a haven for pedophiles, anti-trafficking campaigners have recently begun to bare teeth. Dozens of foreign men have been imprisoned or sent back to courts in Europe and the US, many by the tough deputy head of Phnom Penh’s anti-trafficking bureau Keo Thea. The 2002 deportation to Vietnam of faded glam-rock star Gary Glitter, who was renting a house in the city center, also served notice, said then Minister of Women’s Affairs Mu Sochua, that Cambodia was no longer open for business to the world’s child abusers.

Last year, the local courts convicted two of the most notorious pedophiles in the country, Karl Heinz Henning and Thomas Baron von Englehardt, of raping girls aged 10-14. Henning and Englehardt, a ponytailed German who claimed aristocratic descent, paid US$30 per girl to pimps, often parents, before taking the children to a Phnom Penh apartment, drugging them with ecstasy and videotaping hundreds of hours of sex sessions. Some of the children were bound and gagged while the men tortured them in Nazi regalia. The police were called after neighbors heard screaming.

But these successes only scratched the surface. Cambodian Minister of Women’s Affairs Mu Sochua quit soon after Glitter was kicked out of the country, saying corruption was making her job impossible. Two years ago, the US threatened sanctions after the State Department said Cambodia had failed to meet “minimum standards” to tackle the trafficking of children.

Today, with tourism increasing by 30 percent a year and many police, judges and politicians on the take, the illegal sex trade is booming. At an age when Western kids think having their first illegal drink is a gas, Cambodian children are being abused by men three or four times their age. US charity World Vision last year said that 15 percent of the Cambodian boys they surveyed had been sexually abused before reaching their tenth birthday. About a third of the roughly 80,000 – 100,000 prostitutes in Cambodia are children, according to Canada-based NGO Future Group. The area around Siem Reap, home to Cambodia’s most popular tourist destination, Angkor Wat, is experiencing an “explosion” of brothels, says Don Brewster, an American who moved here with his wife in 2004 to set up a shelter for sexually abused children.
The abuse of children is so routine that local newspapers barely cover it. “Its levels of depravity,” explains Irishman Kevin Doyle, editor of the Cambodia Daily. “You think you’ve seen it all and then something new comes along. ‘Ok, Nazi porn S&M and four year-olds; we haven’t had that before,’ you know?”

Arrests are often smothered with cash. Men pay off the families of the victims and the authorities in a country with a barely functioning legal system where the average civil servant earns about US$30 a month. “The families are happy to get the money and drop charges,” says Sourm Dear, Cambodian Director of Rapha House, a center for victims of sexual abuse, who says his organization has to pay the police to chase down missing girls. Traffickers and pimps, protected by military police and even politicians, target poor, broken families, paying $20 to locals for information on potential victims.

Sarom Vath was 15 and living with her grandmother near the border with Thailand when she was approached by a woman with an offer to work as a waitress. Instead, the woman sold her virginity and locked her in a room with the buyer, a middle-aged taxi driver. “It hurt a lot,” recalls Sarom. She was sold to a brothel, drugged and forced to have sex with up to a dozen men a day. “We were given pills and something to smoke, so I couldn’t sleep and didn’t care about anything.” Now 16, and living in a center for abused children, Sarom is angry and rebellious, but says talking about what happened helps “lighten my heart.”

Children like Sarom get a brutal crash course in the economics of flesh. For many — 38 percent, according to a 2007 report by the International Organization for Migration — entry into the sex trade comes by selling their virginity, sometimes for as little as $100. Some do so ‘voluntarily’; most are trafficked or tricked. Rady Yen, for example, was 15 and alone on Sisowath Quay when she took up an offer to work cleaning tables, only to find that her virginity had been auctioned off to a Japanese tourist. “I got sick and couldn’t see any more men,” she says.

Rady Yen, tricked in Phnom Pehn into selling her virginity and subsequently raped. Now 18 and living in a refugee centre for sexual victims.

She escaped, but the market value of girls who stay in the sex trade plummets: a couple of hundred dollars for a pre-teen, up to $40 for a 12-year-old and on a steadily sliding scale thereafter. Sarom has no idea how much she changed hands for, but thinks it was $5-6 a time.

Rady with her family in Sisophon, a dirt-poor area menaced by sex traffickers.

Crushing poverty fuels the trade. In a festering Phnom Penh slum known simply as “the building”, where naked children play on garbage dumps, watching parents hawk their beautiful 13-year-old daughter to sweating, middle-aged tourists makes twisted sense; she is the only thing of value they have. This slum is home to prostitutes like Kanha Thy, who sold her virginity, aged 14, to a foreign man “aged between 40 and 50” for US$150. At the time her mother was sick and bleeding following a miscarriage and a male neighbor peddled her to the foreigner, persuading her that her mum would die if she didn’t work. The man earned $50 for finding the client. “He tricked me.” She says. Today, Kanha is pregnant with her second child but hides her bump as she works Phnom Penh bars like the “Martini” for foreigners,as does her friend Rous Mach, who has been a prostitute for the last year.

Missing girl poster on lamppost in Poipet.

Foreign intervention, in all its forms, has played a central part in the country’s modern tragedy. French control ended in 1954, but in the mid-1960s, the country was sucked into the Vietnam maelstrom. As the US-led war accelerated, Cambodia’s leadership leaned toward China and North Vietnam.

In the early 1970s in an attempt to eliminate North Vietnamese troops en route to the South, the US carpet-bombed much of the country illegally and relentlessly for three years. This destabilizing of the countryside laid the foundation for the rise of the Khmer Rouge regime, which ran Cambodia into the ground and may have been responsible for well over a million deaths by the time a Vietnamese intervention overthrew the regime in 1979. Three decades later five top surviving Khmer Rouge leaders are in prison facing trial for crimes against humanity and war crimes, in a special tribunal set up by the Cambodian government and the United Nations. But the country has yet to recover from its traumatic past. “Cambodians have developed a numbness to horror because of their history,” says Don Brewster. “There are no barriers; they will do anything for money and they live for today.”

Astonishingly, given how freely pedophiles operate there, Sisowath Quay is the most heavily watched area of the country. Undercover cops and NGOs patrol here and the post-2002 crackdown has pushed some of the trade underground. The notorious brothel area of Svay Pak, on the outskirts of Phnom Penh, no longer sells children openly on the street to men with British, American and Irish accents, though pimps with mobile phones still hover around the area.

But outside the capital, anything goes. In Poipet, a booming town on the Thai border fuelled mostly by gambling and prostitution, the tuk-tuk motorcycle taxis ferry hundreds of Thai, Chinese, Japanese and other tourists daily to brothels on the Cambodian side, where children of any age can be bought with a handful of dollars or Thai Baht. The street vendors even sell Viagra for about $14 a pack.  According to Mr. Dear, “In some cases trafficked girls are worth less than the price of a cow,” he says.

Sign on the road leading into Cambodia from Thailand: Absoutely against Child Sex.

He deals with the consequences. At Rapha House, rescued girls are brought back to normality, sent to school and taught to sew, fix hair and grow vegetables. They must come to terms with their experiences and the fact that in this culture they are devalued because they are no longer virgins. “Everybody knows that I’m a victim because I stay at this center,” says Sorum. “People feel sorry for me. That makes me sad.” Some open up and emerge relatively unscarred. Others rebel, fight with other girls, cut themselves or try to leave, often back to poverty, then prostitution. The “recidivism rate” for rescued child prostitutes is 80 percent, according to Pierre Legros, founder of a Phnom Penh NGO that fights trafficking. “The hardest work is not rescuing the girls, it is making a life for them afterwards,” he says.

On the sidewalk of Sisowath Quay, in front of the city’s best restaurants, Pov and his friends tuck into a pizza, bought by a tourist. Like many of the street children here, he is an unsettling mix of naivety and knowingness, his hand resting on my thigh as he pleads for the name of my hotel. He and his friends are desperate because he knows that most of the foreign men come for girls. But later, when photographer Androniki Christodoulou begins to take pictures, the boys drop their sales pitch, curl up like cats on the Quay wall, and smile shyly. They are, after all, just children.

David McNeill writes regularly for a number of publications including the Irish Times and the Chronicle of Higher Education. He is a Japan Focus coordinator. Earlier versions of this article appeared in The Irish Times and The South China Morning Post. Posted at Japan Focus on March 6, 2008.

Japan in the American Imperium: Rethinking Security

February 4, 2010

Peter J. Katzenstein

A succession of weak Japanese Prime Ministers, the drama of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the current global financial crisis once again have returned the subject of Japanese security policy to a position of relative political marginality. [*] Throughout the Cold War, the analysis of Japanese security was a topic largely overlooked by both American students of Japan and by students of national security. Japan, after all, was the country that had adopted a Peace Constitution with its famous Article 9 interpreted as legally banning the use of armed force in the defense of national objectives. Its professional military had little public standing and was under the thumb of civilians. And Japan’s grand strategy aimed at gaining power and prestige and sought to leverage its economic prowess to a position of regional and perhaps global leadership that would complement rather than rival that of the United States. At the same time Japan relied on the continued protection by the U.S. military. To be sure, since the late 1970s the U.S. government persistently pressed Japan to play a larger regional role in Asia and to spend more of its rapidly growing GDP on national defense. But Japan made no more than marginal concessions. On security issues it kept a low regional profile, and since the late 1980s Japanese defense spending consistently stayed below one percent of GDP. Writing on problems of Japanese national security, thus, was left to policy specialists issuing regular conference reports on the ups and downs of the U.S.–Japan bilateral defense relationship. Theoretically informed scholarship was conspicuous by its absence.

Things have changed a great deal. The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the 9/11 attacks have fundamentally transformed the international landscape. Having failed in understanding the political dynamics that led to the end of the Cold War, some specialists of national and international security turned their attention from the Western to the Eastern perimeter of the Euro–Asian land mass. Would not the rapid rise of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the Newly Industrializing Economies in Southeast Asia, China and Vietnam, yield fertile grounds for the application of the timeless truths of realist theory? As peace was breaking out in Europe, was Asia not destined to prepare for war (Friedberg 1993/94)?

Yet war and ethnic cleansing returned to Europe in the 1990s, while Asia remained peaceful. Thought to be unstoppable in the 1980s, Japan’s economic juggernaut foundered on more than a decade of economic stagnation from 1990, while China’s economy continued to grow annually by about 8–10 percent, creating new security dynamics in East Asia as well as between East Asia and the United States. The Asian financial crisis of 1997 illustrated how closely Asia’s economic miracle had become linked to regional and global markets. It also showed how, with the exception of Indonesia, Asian leaders skillfully maneuvered out of that crisis in a very short time. The attack of September 11 and the U.S. global war on terror increased regional concerns about the rise of al Qaeda (Chow 2005; Leheny 2005). More importantly, it elevated the political importance of North Korea as a member of what President Bush called “the axis of evil,” comprising countries that were suspected of trading in the illicit international market for nuclear technology and thus enhancing the risk that weapons of mass destruction could end up in the hands of groups intent on large-scale violence, or otherwise engaging in criminal or terrorist activities.

JAPAN IN THE AMERICAN IMPERIUM

The broader context in which Japanese and Asian security affairs play themselves out continues to be shaped heavily by the United States as the preeminent actor in the international system and in East Asia. For better and for worse, since the 1930s American policies have had an enormous impact on East Asia. The creation of a liberal international economic order after 1945 was an important precondition for the export-oriented economic miracles of East Asian states. And the permanent stationing of about 100,000 U.S. troops in Japan and South Korea guaranteed continued U. S. political involvement. The Korean and Vietnam wars killed millions of Koreans and Vietnamese and left divisive historical legacies, especially on the Korean peninsula. It would be a mistake, however, to equate the United States government solely with its economic, diplomatic or military policies. The United States is both an actor in and a part of an American system of rule in world politics that has evolved over the last half century. The concept of imperium refers to both actor and system, to the conjoining of power that has both territorial and non-territorial dimensions (Katzenstein 2005).

The American Imperium [1]

The United States government deploys its power in a system of rule that merges the military, economic, political and cultural elements which constitute the foundations for the preeminence of the American imperium in world politics. Territorial power was the coinage of the old land and maritime empires that collapsed at the end of the three great wars of the 20th century: World War I, World War II and the Cold War. American bases circling the Soviet Union during the Cold War and springing up again after the 9/11 attacks underline the continued importance of the territorial dimensions of the American empire. The U.S. has a quarter of a million military personnel deployed on scores of large military bases and hundreds of small ones scattered around the globe. The non-territorial dimensions of American power are reflected in the American Empire, a constellation of flexible hierarchies, fluid identities, and multiple exchanges. It is defined by technologies which are shrinking time and space, the alluring power that inheres in the American pattern of mass consumption, and the attraction of the American dream in a land that, evidence to the contrary notwithstanding, is viewed by many millions around the world mainly as the promised land of freedom and unlimited possibilities.

    US military bases worldwide, 2007. Wikimedia

Territorial empire and non-territorial Empire are ideal types. They merge in the political experience and practices of the American imperium and the formal and informal political systems of rule as well as the combination of hierarchical and egalitarian political relations that it embodies. This imperium is both constraining and enabling. The relative importance of its territorial and non-territorial dimensions waxes and wanes over time, shaped by the domestic struggles in American politics that reflect the rise and fall of political coalitions with competing political constituencies, interests and visions. Japanese and Asian security affairs are encompassed by an imperium which embodies both the material, territorial and actor-centric dimensions of U.S. power on the one hand and the symbolic, non-territorial and systemic dimensions of American power on the other.
Regional core states such as Japan and Germany play crucial roles in linking world regions such as Asia and Europe to the American imperium. Specialists focusing on the politics of regional powers other than Japan and Germany—such as China, Korea, Britain or France—may rightly object to the singling out of Germany and Japan as special core states. Yet, core states play different roles, as supporter states in the case of Japan and Germany, and as regional pivots in the case of, for example, China and France (Chase, Hill and Kennedy 1999). The distinction between pivot and supporter is a historically specific rather than a structurally general argument. It identifies Japan and Germany as core states not because of their size and power but because of their specific historical experience and evolution in the Anglo-American imperium. And because the imperium is Anglo-American, for both structural and historical reasons Britain — with its “special relationship” to the United States and for many decades wracked by fundamental disagreements about its European role — cannot play the role of supporter state. 

A historical comparison of Japan with Germany has advantages over the narrower conceptualization that Richard Samuels (2007) has offered in his recent book. Samuel’s account is a triumph of “old” security studies over “new” security issues such as human security, environmental degradation, terrorism or the spread of weapons of mass destruction. It is striking how the discursive moves of the main-stream and anti-mainstream in Japan’s multiple strategic traditions so carefully tracked in his book are remarkably narrow in what they have to say about the full range of Japan’s contemporary security challenges. Equally significant, Samuels rigorously sidesteps all opportunities to place Japan in a comparative perspective. The attentive reader thus is left with an analysis that makes Japan look unique rather than distinctive. Japan’s self-defined sense of vulnerability is a subject that looms large for Samuels. Yet this condition is hardly unique to Japan. Stubbs (1999, 2005), Zhu (2000, 2002), and Larsson (2007) have applied the same concept to explain a variety of political outcomes in Asia, and I have tried to do the same for the small European states (Katzenstein 1985). Is there some distinctive quality to the experience of vulnerability that sets Japan apart from other states? Furthermore, in contrast to Germany with its important role in NATO and the EU, Japan, the other main Axis power that suffered total defeat in its challenge of Anglo-American hegemony in the middle of the 20th century, has resisted firmly the internationalization of its state identity and security practices (Buruma 1994; Nabers 2006). Is there a relation between the experience of vulnerability and the resistance of internationalization? And if there is, what is its nature? Answers to such questions are important. Neglecting comparisons makes Samuels’s core claim—that Japan is currently in the process of articulating a new grand strategy involving various forms of hedging—empirically indistinguishable from that of  its main rival: that Japan is currently in the process of refurbishing its existing grand strategy. One of the great virtues of the book, however, is the fact that repeatedly the author graciously concedes this central point (Samuels 2007: 64, 107–08, 209. See also Pyle 2007; Midford 2006; Mochizuki 2004).

Because only Japan and Germany challenged in war the Anglo-American world order in the first half of the 20th century, and experienced traumatic defeat and occupation, no other world region has evolved similarly situated core states. After its historic victory over the political alternative that Fascism posed to Anglo-American hegemony in the middle of the 20th century, U.S. foreign policies sought to anchor its Japanese and German clients firmly within America’s emerging imperium ( Lake 1988).

Gavan McCormack (2007, 79–80)  writes: “…it is hard to escape the feeling that they [U.S. officials today] functioned rather as proconsuls, advising and instructing, while seeing Japan still as an imperial dependency, rather like General MacArthur a half-century earlier, who was acclaimed a benevolent liberator even while treating the Japanese people as children.” An assessment that was correct for the late 1940s is wrong half a century later. In the case of Japan as much as Germany it is a mistake to argue that this client status remains intact. Eventually both states left their client status behind, becoming regional powers in their own right and supporters of the United States. Each is intent on exercising economic and political power indirectly, thereby simultaneously extending the reach and durability of the American imperium (Katzenstein and Shiraishi 1997, 2006; Katzenstein 1997). These two supporter states were of vital importance in keeping Asia and Europe porous rather than closed regions. Their attachment to the American imperium was steady, first in the name of anti-Communism, and subsequently in the name of globalization and counter-terrorism. Yet the difference in the geo-strategic context—as yet no politically viable East Asian Community, no large immigrant Muslim population in Japan, a geographically proximate perceived national security threat in the form of North Korea, and a deep suspicion of an increasingly powerful China—has left Japan a more dependable supporter state of the United States than Germany. The bipartisan Armitage-Nye report of October 2000 illustrates how far American policy has come to recognize Japan’s strategic importance for U.S. foreign policy in East Asia, and how far it has left behind policies that regarded Japan as a client (as in the 1950s) or the subject of external pressure politics (as in the 1980s) (Green 2007: 147).

This is not to deny that as history changes, so may the character and standing of these two supporter states. Japan and Germany are increasingly removed in time, although not necessarily in terms of their memory, from their traumatic national defeats. After 9/11 the Bush administration’s sharp turn toward a militant and unilateralist policy has given rise to strong opposition among mass publics abroad (Katzenstein and Keohane 2007). For example, democratization in South Korean politics gave rise to an anti-Americanism that has been accentuated greatly by the abrasive political style of a hapless U.S. diplomacy (Steinberg 2005). Anti-Americanism among the young in particular has risen to heights that would have been inconceivable in the late 1990s. In China, American-inflected globalization is embraced while anti-hegemonism, especially its behavioral manifestations, continues to be a powerful oppositional ideology that resists American primacy. While it is not as virulent or racist as anti-Japanese sentiments, this anti-Americanism is a powerful latent force that is readily activated around many issues and most certainly around the volatile issue of Taiwan (Johnston and Stockmann 2007).

Japan is a notable exception to these changes in East Asian popular attitudes. In the mid- and late 1950s Japanese anti-Americanism ran so deep, in the form of opposition to the US-Japan Security Treaty, that President Eisenhower cancelled his visit in 1960, after the Japanese government informed the White House that a full mobilization of Japan’s total police force could not guarantee the physical security of the Presidential motorcade from Haneda airport to the Imperial Hotel in downtown Tokyo. Since the end of the Vietnam war anti-Americanism has virtually disappeared as Japan’s party system has moved to center-right, and as a new national consciousness has taken hold of a younger generation psychologically no longer moved by the dominant concerns of the 1950s and 1960s and unnerved by North Korean nuclear-reinforced bluster and China’s rise. At a popular level the relationship between Japan and the United States is free from rancor. Despite sustained protests against American bases in Okinawa, public opinion polls typically show above 60 per cent of the Japanese public favoring the United States, about twice as large as corresponding numbers for various European countries (Pew Global Attitudes Project 2007; Tanaka 2007).

Furthermore, as the character of the American imperium changes, its two supporter states are unavoidably repositioned in the matrix of Asian and European politics. There exists thus no reason why the role of these supporter states could not be filled by others. If Germany were to be submerged totally in a European polity (which seems very unlikely) and if Japan’s GDP were surpassed, eventually, by China’s (which seems very likely, but not imminent), together with other historical changes affecting Asia, Europe, and the United States, this might eventually transform the role played by traditional supporters and other regional pivots. In the case of France and China, for example, the magnitude of such changes would have to be very substantial. These two states are crucial pivots. But it is hard to imagine how they could replace Japan and Germany any time soon as Asia’s and Europe’s supporter states.

Japan

Alliance with the United States has provided the political and strategic foundations for Japan’s economic rise in the American imperium (Ikenberry and Inoguchi 2003, 2007). To be sure, with the passing of time Asia has become more important as war and occupation receded and as Japan’s reconstruction and economic clout made it Asia’s preeminent economic power. But it was Asia viewed from Tokyo through an American looking-glass. There was more than a whiff of the historical role that Japan sought after the Meiji restoration—casting itself in the role of interlocutor between Asia and the West.

Since 1945 Japan has experienced a phenomenal rise. Its economic fortunes were helped greatly by serving as the Asian armory in America’s global struggle against Communism, first in Korea in the 1950s and subsequently in Vietnam and Southeast Asia in the 1960s. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the two oil shocks of the 1970s set the stage for the economic rise of Japan in financial markets. The 1980s were the decade of Japan’s global ascendance as an economic superpower, ending in a speculative bubble that collapsed into economic torpor lasting more than a decade. In manufacturing Japan’s technological prowess is no longer unchallenged in defining East Asia’s economic frontiers. Japan has a mature economy that is trying to cope with an aging and thrifty population and with being one of the two main sources of credit for the United States. This completed the transformation of Japan’s strategic relationship with the United States from client to supporter state.

Japan has been important in supporting, both directly and indirectly, U.S. policies in a variety of ways (Krauss and Pempel 2004; McCormack 2007; Pyle 2007; Hughes and Krauss 2007). It helped refurbish the institutional infrastructure of international financial institutions following the Asian financial crisis of 1997, became for a while the world’s largest aid donor, and played a central role, especially in the mid-1980s, of intervening in financial markets to realign the values of the world’s major currencies. Since the 1980s Japan has accommodated the United States on issues central to the functioning of the international economy, with evident reluctance in opening Japanese markets for goods, services and capital and with an air of resignation in amassing close to a trillion dollars in reserves, substantial portions of which have helped to finance perennial U.S. budget and trade deficits.

    Japanese aid allocations 2005-06

With governments deeply involved in shaping their nations’ economic trajectories Japan expected to lead Asia both directly through aid, trade and advice and indirectly by providing an attractive economic model. Japan could not develop and grow unless Asia also developed and grew. By focusing on the politics of productivity, Japan hoped to sidestep political quarrels and dispel historical animosities. It thus sought to create the political conditions where its highly competitive industries could prosper through energetic export drives and smart foreign investments. Regional development and Japanese ascendance would thus be indelibly linked in a win-win situation which cloaked in liberal garments asymmetries in economic position and political power.
This strategy proved politically unworkable. In the 1960s different Japanese proposals for more formal regional integration schemes foundered on the deep suspicions that other Asian states, many of them former colonies or the targets of Japanese invasion, harbored against Japan. Having been rebuffed, the Japanese government settled after the early 1970s on more informal and market-based approaches to Asian integration. After the dramatic appreciation of the Yen in 1985 Japanese firms were quick to develop far-flung networks of subcontractors and affiliated firms. Foreign supplier chains of Japanese firms provided a new regional infrastructure for industries such as textiles, automobiles, and electronics. Thus Japanese investment had a deep impact on specific economic sectors, whole countries, and the entire Asia-Pacific region. And the regionalization of Japan’s economic power had the political benefit of diffusing much of the political conflict with the United States over bilateral trade imbalances. For Japanese enmeshment has helped create a more integrated regional economy in East Asia that is now fueled also by Korean, Taiwanese, Southeast Asian, and Chinese firms. The structural preconditions for this process of regionalization was the insatiable appetite of American consumers for inexpensive Asian products and the openness of American markets to imports from Asia. This outcome was fully compatible with the grand strategy of the United States which in the early 1970s normalized its relations with China to balance the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and which has consistently favored a far-reaching liberalization of markets. There would have been fewer and smaller Asian miracles and less Asian regionalism without the parking lots of American shopping malls filled in America’s irresistible emporium of consumption (DeGrazia 2005).  And while it is premature to reach an informed assessment of the political consequence of the financial crisis that spread from Wall Street to Europe and throughout the global financial system, it seems reasonable to expect economic retrenchment on Main Street to affect the business prospects of Asian exporters who will look, as they have in recent decades, for growth in Asian markets while American consumers are squeezed and interests rise in the United States. 

The role of supporter state was also evident in Japan’s national security policies. Although it was constrained for decades by a pacifist public culture and, somewhat less, by Article 9 of its Peace Constitution, the Japanese government has consistently adhered to policies that supported the United States, especially in the 1980s and with increased intensity since 9/11. To be sure there have been moments—such as in the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s—when the American staying power in Asia appeared sufficiently uncertain so as to suggest the need for possibly far-reaching changes in Japan’s security strategy. But these moments of uncertainty passed quickly, and Japan remained a close ally of the United States—then and now.

The reasons for Japan’s steadfast support have varied. The military, economic and political advantages of the American security umbrella were at the heart of the Yoshida doctrine and widely recognized in all political quarters. Expending less than 1 percent of Japan’s GDP for national defense was feasible because American taxpayers spent a lot more. And as Japan’s standing in the Asia-Pacific increased so did the pressure of the U.S. government to have the Japanese government play a more expansive, and expensive, role in regional security affairs—as a reliable junior partner of the United States. Some of Japan’s critics, both at home and abroad, detected in the 1980s a new tone of assertiveness and a new nationalism in Prime Minister Nakasone’s Japan. Two decades later, under Prime Ministers Koizumi and Abe the increase in an assertive Japanese nationalism was more prominently there for everybody to see. This was the political context in which the Japanese government, in February 2005, decided to raise its profile on one of the region’s most vexing problems, by issuing a joint security declaration with the United States that identified the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue as a shared strategic objective.

Prime Minister Koizumi’s strategy was to attach Japan even more closely to the United States than in the past (Samuels 2007: 86–108; Hughes and Krauss 2007: 160–63), while toying with the idea of bringing about an opening toward North Korea. After the 9/11 attacks the Diet passed in record time legislation permitting the dispatch of the Japanese navy to the Indian Ocean to provide logistical support for the U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan. After the U.S. invasion of Iraq the Diet enacted legislation permitting the deployment of the Japanese army to Iraq to aid in reconstruction and the stationing of the Japanese navy and air force in the Persian Gulf to provide logistical support of the American war. In 2003 the Japanese government agreed to acquire a ballistic missile defense system which should be fully operational by 2011. And legislation introduced in 2005 gives the Prime Minister and military commanders the power to mobilize military force in response to missile attacks, without Cabinet deliberation in the course of analyzing particular empirical contexts or Parliamentary oversight. Since Japan is buying the main components of both weapons systems, the Patriot Advance Capability (PAC)-3 and the Aegis destroyers, from the United States, missile defense will further consolidate the U.S.–Japan alliance and tighten technological cooperation between the two militaries. In 2006 the U.S. and Japan completed a Defense Policy Review Initiative which strengthened the bilateral alliance to meet regional and global security threats. Toward that end and overriding significant local objections, Prime Minister Koizumi agreed to a substantial and costly realignment of U.S. bases in Japan. The practical implication of this agreement was to make Japan a frontline command post in the projection of U.S. military power, not only in East Asia but extending as far as to the Middle East. Like previous ones (Katzenstein 1996: 131–52) this was a further reinterpretation of the geographical scope of the U.S.–Japan security treaty and the mission of U.S. bases that went well beyond protecting the Japanese homeland and securing regional stability in East Asia. In fact, the Japanese and U.S. governments issued a joint statement stressing their shared global objectives of the eradication of terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. These important changes in the U.S.–Japan alliance are clearly linked to changes in the character of Japan and the East Asian context. Yet it is easy to overlook the fact that, with the disintegration of the Japanese Left, strong opposition to Japan’s playing a larger military role has changed as it has moved to other political parties; that opposition has not disappeared.

After 9/11 under Koizumi’s leadership Japan embraced what looked like a grand strategy of unquestioned security alignment with the United States. Japan appeared to be deeply invested in enhancing its special relationship with the United States, imitating that other island nation, Great Britain. But under Abe and Fukuda, leaders of astonishingly little staying power in office, within the context of the US-Japan security alliance, policy   vacillated again between nationalism and Asianism. It remains to be seen how Japan’s strategy will fare under Prime Minister Aso as the United States moves beyond the Presidency of George W. Bush (C. Hughes 2007).

JAPAN AND CHINA: TWO TIGERS ON ONE MOUNTAIN?

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China’s entrance into global markets and its gradual socialization into the role of a responsible regional power has been the single most important development affecting Japan and East Asia. This is not to argue that China has already replaced Japan as the preeminent economic power in Asia. Far from it. In 2002 Japan accounted for 13.5 percent of global GDP almost four times China’s figure. In terms of market exchanges, a better measure of regional and global power dynamics than purchasing power parity measures of GDP, Japan was leading China by a ratio of 4:1 and about 40:1 on a per capita basis. [2] After a decade of economic stagnation Japan’s share of the combined regional GDP of Northeast and Southeast Asia had slipped from 72 to 65 percent. And during the same period of explosive economic growth, China’s GDP as a proportion of Japan’s had increased from 13 to 23 percent (Katzenstein 2006: 2). [3] And even though the situation is changing from year to year, it is good to remember that until 2005 China was still lagging behind Germany as the world’s leading exporter. Current Chinese plans call for increasing the country’s GDP to $4.4 trillion by 2020, quadrupling the figure for the year 2000. If successful, China is likely to top Japan by that time in terms of market size measured at current exchange rates. Although these facts deflate a bit the breathless adulation with which some journalists and politicians are greeting the Chinese juggernaut, just as they greeted Japan’s in the 1980s, it is beyond doubt that very significant changes in China are having a profound effect on Asian and Japanese security.

China’s Rise

The political rise of China as a responsible regional power is an important political development (Kang 2007; Johnston 2004; Economy and Oksenberg 1999; Johnston and Ross 1999; Selden 1997). In the 1970s and 1980s China exchanged the role of a revolutionary for that of a realist power. China’s raison d’etat had a hard-edge of realpolitik that reminded some observers of Imperial Germany in the decades leading up to World War I. After more than a century of humiliation and isolation, was not China finally entitled to its rightful place under the sun? The international politics of sports, energy, xenophobic nationalism, economic mercantilism all seemed to point in that direction. Indeed, some realist theorists who had been baffled by the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in Europe, saw in Asia a region “ripe for rivalry” (Friedberg 1993/94).

China’s diplomacy, however, is not only hard-core realist. On many issues China has adopted a multilateral and accommodating stance. It has recognized the long-term advantages that accrue from its growing economic power and that dictate a diplomatic strategy supporting what has come to be known as China’s “peaceful rise.” This change is visible in comparison to both the United States and Japan. A shift in its national security doctrine in September 2002 established the United States as a revisionist power in the Middle East, in contrast to China playing the role of a status quo power in the international system. In its war against terror the U.S. government sought far-reaching changes. Most importantly it has claimed the right to preemptive attack, even under circumstances when there would be time and opportunity to seek approval from the United Nations. In sharp contrast China joined many other states in insisting on the importance of the legitimacy that international approval confers, as the U.S. had in the era of multilateralism that it had ushered in at the end of World War II. Anti-hegemonism became once again the watchword in Beijing as it balanced carefully a strong interest in China’s territorial sovereignty with growing demands of multilateral diplomacy, including on hot-button issues such as North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. In East Asia, in particular, instead of running the risks of Euro-centric balance-of-power politics China is seeking to return to a Sino-centric band-wagoning politics, thus creating political space for the cautious hedging strategies of a number of East Asian states. And Chinese diplomacy has shifted to include multilateral regional arrangements as an explicit tool to supplement its bilateral approach to regional and global issues.

In contrast to Japan with its more inward economic orientation, the distinctiveness of China’s ascendance lies in an economic might and political clout that is structurally predisposed to reinforce rather than challenge East Asia’s openness in a world of regions. Central to that structural predisposition is the realignment, rather than (re)unification, of a vibrant Chinese diaspora in Taiwan and Southeast Asia, with the Chinese state (Gomez and Hsiao 2004, 2001; Callahan 2003; Naughton 1997; Weidenbaum and Hughes 1996; Dædalus 1991). [4] Millions of overseas Chinese had left the Southern coast of China in the 19th century for destinations throughout Southeast Asia. Over time they became the economic elites in various countries. As successive waves of Asian states experienced their economic miracles, often with the help of developmental states, throughout East Asia networks of overseas Chinese were ready as important intermediaries connecting national political elites with foreign firms. While the core of Chinese business has remained family-controlled, surrounding layers of equity-holding and political control were gradually taken over by members of the indigenous political elites. In the 1990s, in terms of its sheer economic size the overseas Chinese economy in Southeast Asia reportedly ranked fourth in the world.

The category of “overseas Chinese” is ambiguous. In the 19th century the Chinese diaspora lacked a homogenous identity as it was divided, among others, by dialect, hometown, blood relationships and guild associations. As mainland China was engulfed in civil war, revolutionary upheaval and Maoist rule, a thin veneer of common expatriate experience grew, but not enough to conceal the enormous variability in the political experience and standing of the overseas Chinese in different parts of Southeast Asia. The cultural trait that helps define the overseas Chinese thus is an almost infinite flexibility in their approach to business.

The overseas Chinese presented the Chinese state with a formidable problem after the Communist Party seized power in 1949. The 1953 census listed the overseas Chinese as part of China’s population. And the 1954 Constitution of the Peoples Republic of China provided for representation of all overseas Chinese in the National People’s Congress (Suryadinata 1978: 9–10, 26, 29). However, conflict with Indonesia and other Southeast Asian states forced a change in policy. All of these states were wary of the political allegiance of their ethnic Chinese populations. After 1957 Chinese foreign policy encouraged the overseas Chinese to seek local citizenship and local education. And since 1975 China’s constitutions have stripped overseas Chinese of membership in the National People’s Congress. During the last generation an overwhelming number of overseas Chinese have accepted citizenship in their new homelands. The term overseas Chinese now denotes ethnic Chinese of Southeast Asian birth and nationality.

In China both provincial and central governments have sought to strengthen the relationship between China’s surging economy and the overseas Chinese, and especially Taiwan, through an active encouragement of foreign investment, remittances and tourism. What Barry Naughton (1997) calls the “China Circle” connects Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the overseas Chinese throughout Southeast Asia. Upward of one million Taiwanese businessmen now live in China, undercutting ineffective attempts of the Taiwanese government to resist the strong pull of China’s surging economy. And it is easy to forget that outside of this China circle the overseas Chinese constitute also a North American and indeed a global diaspora.

Since the late 1970s China has attracted half a trillion dollars in foreign investment, about ten times the total foreign investment that has flown into Japan since 1945. Between 1985 and 1995 about two-thirds of realized foreign investment in China is estimated to have come from domestic Chinese sources which used Hong Kong to circumvent domestic taxes, one-third from foreign investors. Since 1995 this proportion is widely believed to have reversed itself. Of the 250 billion dollars of total foreign investments, perhaps as much as half has come from Taiwan, and additional undetected funds have flown in from Southeast Asia. [5] Whatever the precise figures, in the coming years even closer tie-ups between overseas and mainland Chinese business are the next phase in the global spread of Asian business networks. It is these market- and state-driven tie-ups, not formal political institutions, which are the defining characteristic of the rise of China and the role of Asia in world politics. The evolution of Chinese capitalism thus is not only a domestic but also a regional and global phenomenon. Across a broad range of issues, uniquely in Asia, China is linked inextricably to the Asia-Pacific. And as a rapidly emerging creditor of the United States and a looming military rival at least in the eyes of important segments of the American defense establishment, China is also linked intimately to the American imperium.

Japan and China

Japan must come to terms with a China that is both a vital economic partner and also a political rival in East Asia (Lam 2006; Dreyer 2006; Cohen, 2005; Abramowitz, Funabashi and Wang 2002; Friedman 2000; Wang 2000; Zhao 1997; Taylor 1996; Iriye 1992). Japan adheres to an increasingly international economic and a fully internationalized security strategy. In sharp contrast, China follows a fully international economic and a more conventional national security strategy. Both reinforce the porosity of East Asia. In the latter stages of the Koizumi administration the deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations was striking. Between May 2004 and October 2005, for example, the relations between these two regional powers were affected negatively by a series of high-profile political events, on average once a month (Pei and Swaine 2005: 5). By the end of Koizumi’s Prime Ministership, Japan’s relations with China had reached rock-bottom. In 2005 just under 10 percent of the Japanese and Chinese public held favorable views of the other country (Sato 2007: 3; Tanaka 2007). Perceptions of imagined slights and hurt pride have played out on both sides against very different interpretations of the past. They are illustrated by the strong opposition of the Chinese public to any historical revision in the interpretation of Japan’s role as the aggressor in the East Asian war in Japanese textbooks. Japanese fear and envy feed anti-Chinese sentiments as Chinese rates of growth since the early 1990s have outstripped Japanese rates by margins of 13:1 in per capita gross domestic product and ownership of personal computers, 12:1 in patent applications, 11:1 in total trade, and 9:1 in research and development expenditures (Pei and Swaine 2005: 6). Domestic politics create political incentives in both countries to magnify and exploit popular sentiments, driven by factional infighting in China and electoral strategizing in Japan. China and Japan thus risk being trapped in a political relationship of deepening suspicion and enmity that runs counter to their growing economic interdependence and the prospect of joint gains.

Prime Minister Abe’s visit to Beijing in October 2006, right after he took over from Koizumi, and the return visit of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in April 2007 have helped improve the political climate between the two countries. Both governments saw the change in Japanese leadership as a chance for bringing about an improvement in bilateral relations. Furthermore, there exist concrete plans for resumption of more frequent meetings between the political leadership of the two countries (Pilling 2006; Dickie and Pilling 2007). But many contentious issues persist under the surface. Most importantly, Prime Minister Abe remained deliberately ambiguous in his talks with the Chinese government and Japanese journalists about a possible visit of the Yakusuni shrine, avoiding the need to tell the Chinese that he would not and domestic supporters that he might be making such a visit. His resignation made the issue mute as his successor, Prime Minister Fukuda, was committed to better relations with Japan’s East Asian neighbors, illustrated by the agreement with China over the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islands in June 2008. It remains to be seen how Prime Minister Aso will handle this issue. Domestic political weakness may force him to abandon a diplomatically sensible ambiguity on Yasukuni Shrine in favor of shoring up his nationalist base in Japan with a gesture that the Chinese leadership may be unable or unwilling to ignore. Such a political move would not come as a total surprise. As Foreign Minister Aso, more than Prime Minister Abe, favored a “value-based” foreign policy that creates an “arc of freedom and prosperity across the democracies in Pacific Asia” designed to exclude China. For its part China remains very suspicious of Japan’s reinvigorated security alliance with the United States, the refashioning of Japan’s national security apparatus, and plans to revise the constitution (Pei 2007). Chinese exploitation of natural gas reserves in the middle of disputed waters in the East China Sea, and Japan’s hope for Chinese backing for its permanent seat on the UN Security Council provide additional roadblocks for improvement in political relations between two governments.

The domestic, regional and global contours of politics suggest that the evolution of Sino-Japanese relations will be shaped by a mixture of engagement and deterrence in their bilateral relations, by their competitive and complementary region-building practices in an East Asia that will resist domination by either country (Katzenstein 2006), and by the cultivation of their different strategic and economic links to the American imperium. Japan has had a deep strategic partnership with the United States for more than half a century. For China, those links are rooted in a developmental trajectory that prizes economic openness and that increasingly seeks global engagement on all fronts. Through Japan and China a porous Asia is tethered in both its security and economic relations to the American imperium. The U.S. presence in East Asia can help stabilize Sino-Japanese relations at least in the near- and medium-term while political efforts at East Asian region-building proceed. Despite the political turbulence and rapid changes in Sino-Japanese relations, for some years to come the American imperium and East Asia may remain politically compatible. And because their political strategies are so different, the two tigers may learn how to live on the same mountain.


Peter J. Katzenstein is the Walter S. Carpenter, Jr. Professor of International Studies at Cornell University and the President of the American Political Science Association. His research and teaching lie at the intersection of the fields of international relations and comparative politics.
Posted at Japan Focus on October 14, 2008.

This is a revised and updated excerpt from chapter 1 of Peter J. Katzenstein, Rethinking Japanese Security: Internal and External Dimensions (New York: Routledge, 2008), with permission of the publisher.

Notes

[*]I would like to thank Mark Selden for much more than his careful editing of the manuscript and his superb critical comments and suggestions. The errors of omission and commission that remain are simply the result of my inability or unwillingness to follow his good advice.

[1] This section summarizes some of the major arguments in Katzenstein 2005.

[2] In terms of purchasing power parity, according to some estimates China’s economy surpassed Japan’s as early as 1994 (Shiraishi 2006: 10).

[3] According to the IMF, by 2006 Japan’s GDP was $4.367 trillion compared to China’s figure of $2.630 trillion, a ratio of 1.66:1. (accessed 4 August 2007)

[4] The material in the next four paragraphs draws on Katzenstein 2005, 63–67.

[5] Interviews, Tianjin and Beijing, March–April 2006.

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US Bases and Empire: Global Perspectives on the Asia Pacific

February 4, 2010

Catherine Lutz

Much about our current world is unparalleled: holes in the ozone layer, the commercial patenting of life forms, degrading poverty on a massive scale, and, more hopefully, the rise of concepts of global citizenship and universal human rights. Less visible but equally unprecedented is the global omnipresence and unparalleled lethality of the U.S. military, and the ambition with which it is being deployed around the world.  These bases bristle with an inventory of weapons whose worth is measured in the trillions and whose killing power could wipe out all life on earth several times over.  Their presence is meant to signal, and at times demonstrate, that the US is able and willing to attempt to control events in other regions militarily. The start of a new administration in Washington, and the possibility that world economic depression will give rise to new tensions and challenges, provides an important occasion to review the global structures of American power.

Officially, over 190,000 troops and 115,000 civilian employees are massed in 909 military facilities in 46 countries and territories.[1] There, the US military owns or rents 795,000 acres of land, and 26,000 buildings and structures valued at $146 billion.  These official numbers are quite misleading as to the scale of US overseas military basing, however, excluding as they do the massive buildup of new bases and troop presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as secret or unacknowledged facilities in Israel, Kuwait, the Philippines and many other places.  $2 billion in military construction money has been expended in only three years of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.  Just one facility in Iraq, Balad Air Base, houses 30,000 troops and 10,000 contractors, and extends across 16 square miles with an additional 12 square mile “security perimeter.”

Deployed from those battle zones in Afghanistan and Iraq to the quiet corners of Curacao, Korea, and England, the US military domain consists of sprawling Army bases, small listening posts, missile and artillery testing ranges, and berthed aircraft carriers.[2]  While the bases are literally barracks and weapons depots and staging areas for war making and ship repair facilities and golf courses and basketball courts, they are also political claims, spoils of war, arms sales showrooms, toxic industrial sites, laboratories for cultural (mis)communication, and collections of customers for local bars, shops, and prostitution.

The environmental, political, and economic impact of these bases is enormous and, despite Pentagon claims that the bases simply provide security to the regions they are in, most of the world’s people feel anything but reassured by this global reach.  Some communities pay the highest price: their farm land taken for bases, their children neurologically damaged by military jet fuel in their water supply, their neighbors imprisoned, tortured and disappeared by the autocratic regimes that survive on US military and political support given as a form of tacit rent for the bases.  Global opposition to U.S. basing has been widespread and growing, however, and this essay provides an overview of both the worldwide network of U.S. military bases and the vigorous campaigns to hold the U.S. accountable for that damage and to reorient their countries’ security policies in other, more human, and truly secure directions.

Military bases are “installations routinely used by military forces” (Blaker 1990:4).  They represent a confluence of labor (soldiers, paramilitary workers, and civilians), land, and capital in the form of static facilities, supplies, and equipment.  They should also include the eleven US aircraft carriers, often used to signal the possibility of US bombing and invasion as they are brought to “trouble spots” around the world. They were, for example, the primary base of US airpower during the invasion of Iraq in 2003.  The US Navy refers to each carrier as “four and a half acres of sovereign US territory.” These moveable bases and their land-based counterparts are just the most visible part of the larger picture of US military presence overseas.  This picture of military access includes (1) US military training of foreign forces, often in conjunction with the provision of US weaponry, (2) joint exercises meant to enhance US soldiers’ exposure to a variety of operating environments from jungle to desert to urban terrain and interoperability across national militaries, and (3) legal arrangements made to gain overflight rights and other forms of ad hoc use of others’ territory as well as to preposition military equipment there.  In all of these realms, the US is in a class by itself, no adversary or ally maintaining anything comparable in terms of its scope, depth and global reach.

US forces train 100,000 soldiers annually in 180 countries, the presumption being that beefed-up local militaries will help pursue U.S. interests in local conflicts and save the U.S. money, casualties, and bad publicity when human rights abuses occur.[3]  Moreover, working with other militaries is important, strategists say, because “these low-tech militaries may well be U.S. partners or adversaries in future contingencies, [necessitating] becoming familiar with their capabilities and operating style and learning to operate with them” (Cliff & Shapiro 2003:102).  The blowback effects are especially well known since September 11 (Johnson 2000).  Less well known is that these training programs strengthen the power of military forces in relation to other sectors within those countries, sometimes with fragile democracies, and they may include explicit training in assassination and torture techniques.  Fully 38 percent of those countries with US basing were cited in 2002 for their poor human rights record (Lumpe 2002:16).

The US military presence also involves jungle, urban, desert, maritime, and polar training exercises across wide swathes of landscape.  These exercises have sometimes been provocative to other nations, and in some cases have become the pretext for substantial and permanent positioning of troops; in recent years, for example, the US has run approximately 20 exercises annually on Philippine soil.  This has meant a near continuous presence of US troops in a country whose people ejected US bases in 1992 and continue to vigorously object to their reinsertion, and whose Constitution forbids the basing of foreign troops.  In addition, these exercises ramp up even more than usual the number and social and environmental impact of daily jet landings and sailors on liberty around US bases (Lindsay Poland 2003). 

Finally, US military and civilian personnel work to shape local legal codes to facilitate US access.  They have lobbied, for example, to change the Philippine and Japanese constitutions to allow, respectively, foreign troop basing, US nuclear weapons, and a more-than-defensive military in the service of US wars, in the case of Japan.  “Military diplomacy” with local civil and military elites is conducted not only to influence such legislation but also to shape opinion in what are delicately called “host” countries.  US military and civilian officials are joined in their efforts by intelligence agents passing as businessmen or diplomats; in 2005, the US Ambassador to the Philippines created a furor by mentioning that the US has 70 agents operating in Mindanao alone.

Much of U.S. weaponry, nuclear and otherwise, is stored at places like Camp Darby in Italy, Kadena Air Force Base in Okinawa, and the Naval Magazine on Guam, as well as in nuclear submarines and on the Navy’s other floating bases.[4] The weapons, personnel, and fossil fuels involved in this US military presence cost billions of dollars, most coming from US taxpayers but an increasing number of billions from the citizens of the countries involved, particularly Japan.  Elaborate bilateral negotiations exchange weapons, cash, and trade privileges for overflight and land use rights. Less explicitly, but no less importantly, rice import levels or immigration rights to the US or overlooking human rights abuses have been the currency of exchange, for example in enlisting mercenaries from the islands of Oceania (Cooley 2008).

Bases are the literal and symbolic anchors, and the most visible centerpieces, of the U.S. military presence overseas.  To understand where those bases are and how they are being used is essential for understanding the United States’ relationship with the rest of the world, the role of coercion in it, and its political economic complexion. I ask why this empire of bases was established in the first place, how the bases are currently configured around the world and how that configuration is changing.

What Are Bases For?

Foreign military bases have been established throughout the history of expanding states and warfare. They proliferate where a state has imperial ambitions, either through direct control of territory or through indirect control over the political economy, laws, and foreign policy of other places. Whether or not it recognizes itself as such, a country can be called an empire when it projects substantial power with the aim of asserting and maintaining dominance over other regions.  Those policies succeed when wealth is extracted from peripheral areas, and redistributed to the imperial center.  Empires, then, have historically been associated with a growing gap between the wealth and welfare of the powerful center and the regions it dominates. Alongside and supporting these goals has often been elevated self-regard in the imperial power, or a sense of racial, cultural, or social superiority.

The descriptors empire and imperialism have been applied to the Romans, Incas, Mongols, Persians, Portuguese, Spanish, Ottomans, Dutch, British, Soviet Union, China, Japan, and the United States, among others. Despite the striking differences between each of these cases, each used military bases to maintain some forms of rule over regions far from their center.  The bases eroded the sovereignty of allied states on which they were established by treaty; the Roman Empire was accomplished not only by conquest, but also “by taking her weaker [but still sovereign] neighbors under her wing and protecting them against her and their stronger neighbors… The most that Rome asked of them in terms of territory was the cessation, here and there, of a patch of ground for the plantation of a Roman fortress” (Magdoff et al. 2002).

What have military bases accomplished for these empires through history?  Bases are usually presented, above all, as having rational, strategic purposes; the empire claims that they provide forward defense for the homeland, supply other nations with security, and facilitate the control of trade routes and resources.  They have been used to protect non-economic actors and their agendas as well – missionaries, political operatives, and aid workers among them. In the 16th century, the Portuguese, for example, seized profitable ports along the route to India and used demonstration bombardment, fortification, and naval patrols to institute a semi-monopoly in the spice trade. They militarily coerced safe passage payments and duties from local traders via key fortified ports. More recently as well, bases have been used to control the political and economic life of the host nation: US bases in Korea, for example, have been key parts of the continuing control that the US military exercises over Korean forces, and Korean foreign policy more generally, extracting important political and military support, for example, for its wars in Vietnam and Iraq. Politically, bases serve to encourage other governments’ endorsement of US military and other foreign policy.  Moreover, bases have not simply been planned in keeping with strategic and political goals, but are the result of institutionalized bureaucratic and political economic imperatives, that is, corporations and the military itself as an organization have a powerful stake in bases’ continued existence regardless of their strategic value (Johnson 2004).

Alongside their military and economic functions, bases have symbolic and psychological dimensions.  They are highly visible expressions of a nation’s will to status and power.  Strategic elites have built bases as a visible sign of the nation’s standing, much as they have constructed monuments and battleships. So, too, contemporary US politicians and the public have treated the number of their bases as indicators of the nation’s hyperstatus and hyperpower.  More darkly, overseas military bases can also be seen as symptoms of irrational or untethered fears, even paranoia, as they are built with the long-term goal of taming a world perceived to be out of control.  Empires frequently misperceive the world as rife with threats and themselves as objects of violent hostility from others.  Militaries’ interest in organizational survival has also contributed to the amplification of this fear and imperial basing structures as the solution as they “sell themselves” to their populace by exaggerating threats, underestimating the costs of basing and war itself, as well as understating the obstacles facing preemption and belligerence (Van Evera 2001).

As the world economy and its technological substructures have changed, so have the roles of foreign bases. By 1500, new sailing technologies allowed much longer distance voyages, even circumnavigational ones, and so empires could aspire to long networks of coastal naval bases to facilitate the control of sea lanes and trade. They were established at distances that would allow provisioning the ship, taking on fresh fruit that would protect sailors from scurvy, and so on.  By the 21st century, technological advances have at least theoretically eliminated many of the reasons for foreign bases, given the possibilities of in transit refueling of jets and aircraft carriers, the nuclear powering of submarines and battleships, and other advances in sea and airlift of military personnel and equipment.  Bases have, nevertheless, continued their ineluctable expansion.

US Aircraft Carrier in the Persian Gulf

States that invest their people’s wealth in overseas bases have paid direct as well as opportunity costs, whose consequences in the long run have usually been collapse of the empire. In The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, Kennedy notes that previous empires which established and tenaciously held onto overseas bases inevitably saw their wealth and power decay. He finds that history

. . . demonstrates that military ‘security’ alone is never enough.  It may, over the shorter term, deter or defeat rival states….[b]ut if, by such victories, the nation over-extends itself geographically and strategically; if, even at a less imperial level, it chooses to devote a large proportion of its total income to ‘protection,’ leaving less for ‘productive investment,’ it is likely to find its economic output slowing down, with dire implications for its long-term capacity to maintain both its citizens’ consumption demands and its international position (Kennedy 1987:539).[5]

Nonetheless, U.S. defense officials and scholars have continued to argue that bases lead to “enhanced national security and successful foreign policy” because they provide “a credible capacity to move, employ, and sustain military forces abroad,” (Blaker 1990:3) and the ability “to impose the will of the United States and its coalition partners on any adversaries.”[6]  This belief helps sustain the US basing structure, which far exceeds any the world has seen: this is so in terms of its global reach, depth, and cost, as well as its impact on geopolitics in all regions of the world, particularly the Asia-Pacific.

A Short History of US Bases

In 1938, the US had 14 military bases outside its continental borders.  Seven years and 55 million World War II deaths later (of which a small fraction — 400,000 — were US citizens), the United States had an astounding 30,000 installations large and small in approximately 100 countries. While this number was projected to contract to 2,000 by 1948, the global scale of US military basing would remain a major legacy of the Second World War, and with it, providing the sinews for the rise to global hegemony of the United States (Blaker 1990:22).  

After consolidation of continental dominance, there were three periods of expansive global ambition in US history beginning in 1898, 1945, and 2001. Each is associated with the acquisition of significant numbers of new overseas military bases. The Spanish-American war resulted in the acquisition of a number of colonies, many of which have remained under US control in the century since.  Nonetheless, by 1920, popular support for international expansion in the US had been diminished by the Russian Revolution, by growing domestic labor militancy, and by a rising nationalism, culminating in the US Senate’s rejection of the League of Nations (Smith 2003). So it was that as late as 1938, the US basing system was far smaller than that of its political and economic peers including many European nations as well as Japan.  US soldiers were stationed in just 14 bases, some quite small, in Puerto Rico, Cuba, Panama, the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Midway, Wake, and Guam, the Philippines, Shanghai, two in the Aleutians, American Samoa, and Johnston Island (Harkavy 1982). This small number was the result in part of a strong anti-statist and anti-militarist strain in US political culture (Sherry 1995). From the perspective of many in the US through the inter-war period, to build bases would be to risk unwarranted entanglement in others’ conflicts. Bases nevertheless positioned the US in both Latin America and the Asia-Pacific.

Many of the most important and strategic international bases of this era were those of rival empires, with by far the largest number belonging to the British Empire.  In order of magnitude, the other colonial powers with basing included France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Italy, Japan, and, only then, the US.  Conversely, some countries with large militaries and even some with expansive ambitions had relatively few overseas bases; Germany and the Soviet Union had almost none.  But the attempt to acquire such bases would be a contributing cause of World War II (Harkavy 1989:5).

The bulk of the US basing system was established during World War II, beginning with a deal cut with Great Britain for the long-term lease of base facilities in six British colonies in the Caribbean in 1941 in exchange for some decrepit US destroyers.  The same year, the US assumed control of formerly Danish bases in Greenland and Iceland (Harkavy 1982:68).  The rationale for building bases in the Western Hemisphere was in part to discourage or prevent the Germans from doing so; at the same time, the US did not, before Pearl Harbor, expand or build new bases in the Asia-Pacific on the assumption that they might be indefensible and that they could even provoke Japanese attack.

By the end of the war in 1945, the United States had 30,000 installations spread throughout the world, as already mentioned. The Soviet Union had bases in Eastern Europe, but virtually no others until the 1970s, when they expanded rapidly, especially in Africa and the Indian Ocean area (Harkavy 1982).  While Truman was intent on maintaining bases the US had taken or created in the war, many were closed by 1949 (Blaker 1990:30). Pressure came from Australia, France, and England, as well as from Panama, Denmark and Iceland, for return of bases in their own territory or colonies, and domestically to demobilize the twelve million man military (a larger military would have been needed to maintain the vast basing system). More important than the shrinking number of bases, however, was the codification of US military access rights around the world in a comprehensive set of legal documents.  These established security alliances with multiple states within Europe (NATO), the Middle East and South Asia (CENTO), and Southeast Asia (SEATO), and they included bilateral arrangements with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.  These alliances assumed a common security interest between the United States and other countries and were the charter for US basing in each place.  Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs) were crafted in each country to specify what the military could do; these usually gave US soldiers broad immunity from prosecution for crimes committed and environmental damage created.  These agreements and subsequent base operations have usually been shrouded in secrecy. 

In the United States, the National Security Act of 1947, along with a variety of executive orders, instituted what can be called a second, secret government or the “national security state”, which created the National Security Agency, National Security Council, and Central Intelligence Agency and gave the US president expansive new imperial powers.  From this point on, domestic and especially foreign military activities and bases were to be heavily masked from public oversight (Lens 1987).  Begun as part of the Manhattan Project, the black budget is a source of defense funds secret even to Congress, and one that became permanent with the creation of the CIA. Under the Reagan administration, it came to be relied on more and more for a variety of military and intelligence projects and by one estimate was $36 billion in 1989 (Blaker 1990:101, Weiner 1990:4). Many of those unaccountable funds then and now go into use overseas, flowing out of US embassies and military bases. There they have helped the US to work vigorously to undermine and change local laws that restrict its military plans; it has interfered for years in the domestic affairs of nations in which it has or desires military access, including attempts to influence votes on and change anti-nuclear and anti-war provisions in the Constitutions of the Pacific nation of Belau and of Japan.

The number of US bases was to rise again during the Korean and Vietnam Wars, reaching back to 1947 levels by the year 1967 (Blaker 1990:33). The presumption was established that bases captured or created during wartime would be permanently retained.  Certain ideas about basing and what it accomplished were to be retained from World War II as well, including the belief that “its extensive overseas basing system was a legitimate and necessary instrument of U.S. power, morally justified and a rightful symbol of the U.S. role in the world” (Blaker 1990:28).

Nonetheless, over the second half of the 20th century, the United States was either evicted or voluntarily left bases in dozens of countries.[7]  Between 1947 and 1990, the US was asked to leave France, Yugoslavia, Iran, Ethiopia, Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Algeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Peru, Mexico, and Venezuela. Popular and political objection to the bases in Spain, the Philippines, Greece, and Turkey in the 1980s enabled those governments to negotiate significantly more compensation from the United States. Portugal threatened to evict the US from important bases in the Azores, unless it ceased its support for independence for its African colonies, a demand with which the US complied.[8]  In the 1990s and later, the US was sent packing, most significantly, from the Philippines, Panama, Saudi Arabia, Vieques, and Uzbekistan (see McCaffery, this volume).

At the same time, US bases were newly built after 1947 in remarkable numbers (241) in the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as in Italy, Britain, and Japan (Blaker 1990:45).  The defeated Axis powers continued to host the most significant numbers of US bases: at its height, Japan was peppered with 3,800 US installations.

As battles become bases, so bases become battles; the bases in East Asia acquired in the Spanish American War and in World War II, such as Guam, Okinawa and the Philippines, became the primary sites from which the United States waged war on Vietnam.  Without them, the costs and logistical obstacles for the US would have been immense.  The number of bombing runs over North and South Vietnam required tons of bombs unloaded, for example, at  the Naval Station in Guam, stored at the Naval Magazine in the southern area of the island, and then shipped up to be loaded onto B-52s at Anderson Air Force Base every day during years of the war.  The morale of ground troops based in Vietnam, as fragile as it was to become through the latter part of the 1960s, depended on R & R at bases throughout East and Southeast Asia which would allow them to leave the war zone and yet be shipped back quickly and inexpensively for further fighting (Baker 2004:76).  In addition to the bases’ role in fighting these large and overt wars, they facilitated the movement of military assets to accomplish the over 200 military interventions the US waged in the Cold War period (Blum 1995).

While speed of deployment is framed as an important continued reason for forward basing, troops could be deployed anywhere in the world from US bases without having to touch down en route.  In fact, US soldiers are being increasingly billeted on US territory, including such far-flung areas as Guam, which is presently slated for a larger buildup, for this reason as well as to avoid the political and other costs of foreign deployment.

 

U.S. military bases on Guam

With the will to gain military control of space, as well as gather intelligence, the US over time, and especially in the 1990s, established a large number of new military bases to facilitate the strategic use of communications and space technologies. Military R&D (the Pentagon spent over $52 billion in 2005 and employed over 90,000 scientists) and corporate profits to be made in the development and deployment of the resulting technologies have been significant factors in the ever larger numbers of technical facilities on foreign soil.  These include such things as missile early-warning radar, signals intelligence, space tracking telescopes and laser sources, satellite control, downwind air sampling monitors, and research facilities for everything from weapons testing to meteorology.  Missile defense systems and network centric warfare increasingly rely on satellite technology and drones with associated requirements for ground facilities.  These facilities have often been established in violation of arms control agreements such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty meant to limit the militarization of space.

The assumption that US bases served local interests in a shared ideological and security project dominated into the 1960s: allowing base access showed a commitment to fight Communism and gratitude for US military assistance.  But with decolonization and the US war in Vietnam, such arguments began to lose their power, and the number of US overseas bases declined from an early 1960s peak.  Where access was once automatic, many countries now had increased leverage over what the US had to give in exchange for basing rights, and those rights could be restricted in a variety of important ways, including through environmental and other regulations.  The bargaining chips used by the US were increasingly sophisticated weapons, as well as rent payments for the land on which bases were established.[9]  These exchanges were often become linked with trade and other kinds of agreements, such as access to oil and other raw materials and investment opportunities (Harkavy 1982:337).  They also, particularly when advanced weaponry is the medium of exchange, have had destabilizing effects on regional arms balances. From the earlier ideological rationale for the bases, global post-war recovery and decreasing inequality between the US and countries – mostly in the global North – that housed the majority of US bases, led to a more pragmatic or economic grounding to basing negotiations, albeit often thinly veiled by the language of friendship and common ideological bent. The 1980s saw countries whose populations and governments had strongly opposed US military presence, such as Greece, agree to US bases on their soil only because they were in need of the cash, and Burma, a neutral but very poor state, entered negotiations with the US over basing troops there (Harkavy 1989:4-5).

The third period of accelerated imperial ambition began in 2000, with the election of George Bush and the ascendancy of a group of leaders committed to a more aggressive and unilateral use of military power, their ability to do so radically precipitated and allowed by the attacks of 9/11. They wanted “a network of ‘deployment bases’ or ‘forward operating bases’ to increase the reach of current and future forces” and focused on the need for bases in Iraq: “While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein.” This plan for expanded US military presence around the world has been put into action, particularly in the Middle East, the Russian perimeter, and, now, Africa.

Pentagon transformation plans design US military bases to operate even more uniformly as offensive, expeditionary platforms from which military capabilities can be projected quickly, anywhere.  Where bases in Korea, for example, were once meant centrally to defend South Korea from attack from the north, they are now, like bases everywhere, meant primarily to project power in any number of directions and serve as stepping stones to battles far from themselves.  The Global Defense Posture Review of 2004 announced these changes, focusing not just on reorienting the footprint of US bases away from Cold War locations, but on grounding imperial ambitions through remaking legal arrangements that support expanded military activities with other allied countries and prepositioning equipment in those countries to be able to “surge” military force quickly, anywhere. 

The Department of Defense currently distinguishes between three types of military facilities. “Main operating bases” are those with permanent personnel, strong infrastructure, and often including family housing, such as Kadena Air Base in Japan and Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany.  “Forward operating sites” are “expandable warm facilit[ies] maintained with a limited U.S. military support presence and possibly prepositioned equipment,” such as Incirlik Air Base in Turkey and Soto Cano Air Base in Honduras (US Defense Department 2004:10).  Finally, “cooperative security locations” are sites with few or no permanent US personnel, which are maintained by contractors or the host nation for occasional use by the US military, and often referred to as “lily pads.” In Thailand, for example, U-Tapao Royal Thai Navy Airfield has been used extensively for US combat runs over Iraq and Afghanistan. Others are now cropping up around the world, especially throughout Africa, as in Dakar, Senegal where facilities and use rights have been newly established.

Critical observers of US foreign policy, Chalmers Johnson foremost among them, have thoroughly dissected and dismantled several of the arguments that have been made for maintaining a global military basing system (Johnson 2004). They have shown that the system has often failed in its own terms, that is, it has not provided more safety for the US or its allies. Johnson shows that the US base presence has often created more attacks rather than fewer, as in Saudi Arabia or in Iraq.  They have made the communities around the base a key target of Russia’s or other nation’s missiles, and local people recognize this.  So on the island of Belau in the Pacific, site of sharp resistance to US attempts to install a submarine base and jungle training center, people describe their experience of military basing in World War II: “When soldiers come, war comes.”  Likewise, on Guam, a common joke has it that few people other than nuclear targeters in the Kremlin know where their island is.  Finally, US military actions have often produced violence in the form of blowback rather than squelched it, undermining their own stated realist objectives (Johnson 2000). 

Gaining and maintaining access for US bases has often involved close collaboration with despotic governments.  This has been the case especially in the Middle East and Asia. The US long worked closely with the dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, to maintain the Philippines bases, with various autocratic or military Korean rulers from 1960 through the 1980s, and successive Thai dictators until 1973, to give just a few examples.

 

Marcos and Nixon

Conclusion: The World Responds

Social movements have proliferated around the world in response to the empire of US bases, with some of the earliest and most active in the Asia Pacific region, particularly the Philippines, Okinawa, and Korea, and, recently, Guam.[10]  In defining the problem they face, some groups have focused on the base itself, its sheer presence as out of place in a world of nation states, that is, they see the problem as one of affronts to sovereignty and national pride.

 

Demonstrators link hands encircling the US base at Kadena, Okinawa

Others focus on the purposes the bases serve, which is to stand ready to and sometimes wage war, and see the bases as implicating them in the violence projected from them.  Most also focus on the noxious effects of the bases’ daily operations involving highly toxic, noisy, and violent operations that employ large numbers of young males.  For years, the movements have criticized confiscation of land, the health effects from military jet noise and air and water pollution, soldiers’ crimes, especially rapes, other assaults, murders, and car crashes, and the impunity they have usually enjoyed, the inequality of the nation to nation relationship often undergirded by racism and other forms of disrespect. Above all, there is the culture of militarism that infiltrates local societies and its consequences, including death and injury to local youth, and the use of the bases for prisoner extradition and torture.[11]  In a few cases, such as Japan and Korea, the bases entail costs to local treasuries in payments to the US for support of the bases or for cleanup of former base areas.

The sense that US bases impose massive burdens on local communities and the nation is common in the countries where US bases are most ubiquitous and of longest-standing.  These are places where people have been able to observe military practice and relations with the US up close over a long period of time.  In Okinawa, most polls show that 70 to 80 percent of the island’s people want the bases, or at least the Marines, to leave: they want base land back and they want an end to aviation crash risks, an end to prostitution, and drug trafficking, and sexual assault and other crimes by US soldiers (see Kozue and Takazato, this volume; Sturdevant & Stoltzfus 1993).[12] One family built a large peace museum right up against the edge of the fence to Futenma Air Base, with a stairway to the roof which allows busloads of schoolchildren and other visitors to view the sprawling base after looking at art depicting the horrors of war.

In Korea, many feel that a reduction in US presence would increase national security.[13] As interest grew since 2000 in reconciliation with North Korea, many came to the view that nuclear and other deterrence against North Korean attack associated with the US military presence, have prevented reunification.  As well, the US military is seen as disrespectful of Koreans.  In recent years, several violent deaths at the hands of US soldiers brought out vast candlelight vigils and other protest across the country.  And the original inhabitants of Diego Garcia, evicted from their homes between 1967-1973 by the British on behalf of the US, have organized a concerted campaign for the right to return, bringing legal suit against the British Government (see Vine 2009).   There is also resistance to the US expansion plans into new areas.  In 2007, a number of African nations balked at US attempts at military basing access (Hallinan 2007).  In Eastern Europe, despite well-funded campaigns to convince Poles and Czechs of the value of US bases and much sentiment in favor of taking the bases in pursuit of solidifying ties with NATO and the European Union, and despite economic benefits of the bases, vigorous protests including hunger strikes have emerged (see Heller and Lammerant, this volume).[14]

In South Korea, bloody battles between civilian protesters and the Korean military were waged in 2006 in response to US plans to relocate the troops there. In 2004, the Korean government agreed to US plans to expand Camp Humphries near Pyongtaek, currently 3,700 acres, by an additional 2,900 acres.

 

Farmers and supporters vigil, Pyongtaek

The surrounding area, including the towns of Doduri and Daechuri, was home to some 1,372 people, many elderly farmers. In 2005, residents and activists began a peace camp at the village of Daechuri.  The Korean government eventually forcibly evicted all from their homes and demolished the Daechuri primary school, which had been an organizing center for the resisting farmers.

 

Korean farmer resisting police eviction to make way for a base

The US has responded to anti-base organizing, on the other hand, by a renewed emphasis on “force protection,” in some cases enforcing curfews on soldiers, and cutting back on events that bring local people onto base property.  The Department of Defense has also engaged in the time-honored practice of renaming: clusters of soldiers, buildings and equipment have become “defense staging posts” or “forward operating locations” rather than military bases.  The regulating documents become “visiting forces agreements,” not “status of forces agreements” or remain entirely secret.  While major reorganization of bases is underway for a host of reasons, including a desire to create a more mobile force with greater access to the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, the motives also include an attempt to derail or prevent political momentum of the sort that ended US use of Vieques and the Philippine bases.  The US attempt to gain permanent basing in Iraq foundered in 2008 on the objections of forces in both Iraq and the US (see Engelhardt, this volume). The likelihood that a change of US administration will make for significant dismantling of those bases is highly unlikely, however, for all the reasons this brief history of US bases and empire suggests.

Catherine Lutz is Research Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies and Professor of Anthropology at Brown University.  This article is the revised and condensed introduction to The Bases of Empire:  The Global Struggle against US Military Posts (ed.). London: Pluto Press and New York: New York University Press (with The Transnational Institute), 2009.

See Chalmers Johnson’s review of The Bases of Empire.

Posted at The Asia-Pacific Journal on March 16, 2009.

Recommended citation: Catherine Lutz, “US Bases and Empire: Global Perspectives on the Asia Pacific,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 12-3-09, March 16, 2009.

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Notes


 

[1] Department of Defense (2007) Base Structure Report: Fiscal Year 2007 Baseline Report, available [online] here. Date last accessed June 5, 2008. These official numbers far undercount the facilities in use by the US military.  To minimize the total, public knowledge and political objections, the Department of Defense sets minimum troop numbers, acreage covered, or dollar values of an installation, or counted all facilities within a certain geographic radius as a single base.   
[2] The major current concentrations of U.S. sites outside those war zones are in South Korea, with 106 sites and 29,000 troops (which will be reduced by a third by 2008), Japan with 130 sites and 49,000 troops, most concentrated in Okinawa, and Germany with 287 sites and 64,000 troops.  Guam with 28 facilities, covering 1/3 of the island’s land area, has nearly 6,600 airmen and soldiers and is slated to radically expand over the next several years (Base Structure Report FY2007).
[3] Funding for the International Military Education and Training (IMET) Program rose 400 percent in just eight years from 1994 to 2002 (Lumpe 2002).
[4] The deadliness of its armaments matches that of every other empire and every other contemporary military combined (CDI 2002).  This involves not just its nuclear arsenal, but an array of others, such as daisy cutter and incendiary bombs.
[5] A variety of theories have argued for the relationship between foreign military power and bases and the fate of states, including long cycle theory (Harkavy 1999), world systems theory (Wallerstein 2003), and neomarxism (Magdoff 2003).
[6] Donald Rumsfeld, ‘Department of Defense Office of the Executive Secretary: Annual Report to the President and Congress’, 2002, p. 19, available online. Date last accessed Oct. 8, 2007.
[7] Between 1947 and 1988, the U.S. left 62 countries, 40 of them outside the Pacific Islands (Blaker 1990:34).
[8] Luis Nuno Rodrigues, ‘Trading “Human Rights” for “Base Rights”: Kennedy, Africa and the Azores’, Ms. Possession of the author, March 2006.
[9] Harkavy (1982:337) calls this the “arms-transfer-basing nexus” and sees the U.S. weaponry as key to maintaining both basing access and control over the client states in which the bases are located.  Granting basing rights is not the only way to acquire advanced weaponry, however.  Many countries purchased arms from both superpowers during the Cold War, and they are less likely to have US bases on their soil.
[10] For other studies documenting the effects of and responses to U.S. military bases’, beyond this volume, see Simbulan (1985); Bello, Hayes & Zarsky (1987); Gerson & Birchard (1991); Soroko (2006).
[11] On the latter, see New Statesman, Oct. 8, 2002.
[12] The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus is a good source on the issues as well.
[13] Global Views 2004: Comparing South Korean and American Public Opinion. Topline Data from South Korean Public Survey, September 2004. Chicago: The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, The East Asia Institute, p. 12.
[14] Common Dreams, Feb. 19, 2007, available [online] here. Date last accessed Aug. 10, 2007.